Today is 1st of March: ECB Passive Quantitative Tigthening (QT) begins
From today onwards, the European Central bank (ECB) will reduce the size of its balance sheet by €15bn per month (until June). ECB assets currently stand at €9T, of which government bonds €5T. Markets swallowed an effective net debt supply of €280bn in 2022, but with QT 2023's it balloons to + €600bn. Source: Bloomberg, Valery Tytel, Gustavo Philippsen Fuhr
The average price of a new home sold in the US is down 16% from its peak last July
After the last housing bubble peak the average new home price fell 25% nationally. Source: Charlie Bilello
Eurozone M1 money supply YoY turned negative for 1st time since start of the statistic
The annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1 decreased to -0.7% in January 2023 from 0.6% in Dececember 2022, while M3 money supply slowed to 3.5% from 4.1% in December. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
A big test ahead for the S&P 500
S&P 500's uptrend that started last fall continues even with the index losing 2.6% this month. But with the S&P 500 closing below the 50 day moving average and trapped in a range just above its 200 day moving average, this week will be critical. Source: Bloomberg
Global bonds have officially erased all YTD gains
Source: Bloomberg
Germany is still far from its energy transition goals
Germany must invest $1tn in expansion of renewable energy by 2030 in order to cover 80% of its electricity needs from renewable sources by then. Germany needs 43 soccer fields of solar power every day, boldest project since WWII. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
A 60/40 Portfolio remains 14% below its all-time high
A 60/40 Portfolio of US stocks/bonds is currently in a 14-month drawdown, 14% below its all-time high. This is the longest drawdown for a 60/40 portfolio since the financial crisis (37 months) and before that the aftermath of the dot-com bubble (43 months). Source: Charlie Bilello
Eurozone inflation for January tops earlier estimate
Eurozone CPI rose 8.6% in Jan YoY, up from 8.5% increase prev estimated. Core CPI, which strips out volatile categories, was 5.3%, up from preliminary estimate of 5.2% and fresh ATH. Core gives ECB hawks new fuel for more hikes.
