Fed Terminal Rate has climbed 50bps year-to-date and keeps rising
This is the chart that is rattling the markets: Fed Terminal Rate has climbed 50bps year-to-date and keeps rising!
German Food CPI jumped 20.2% YoY in January
Supermarket inflation remains elevated in Gernmany. Food CPI jumped 20.2% YoY in January. Following the rebalancing of the basket of goods by German Statistics Office, food now has a higher weight in inflation rate. Share rose by 2ppts from 8.5% to 10.5%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Global Bonds Are Set to Erase 2023 Gains as Pivot Hopes Wither
Source: Bloomberg
Japan’s Key Yield Rises Above 0.5% BOJ Ceiling for Second Day
Source: Bloomberg
Hedge funds net exposure is moving from Value to Growth sectors
(note that it is as of December 31st, 2022 so it is lagging the actual net exposure) Source: Goldman Sachs
China ramps up cash injection to prevent funding stress
The People’s Bank of China offered 835 billion yuan ($121 billion) of cash via seven-day reverse repurchase contracts on Friday, resulting in an injection of 632 billion yuan on a net basis. That’s the largest one-day addition on record in data going back to 2004 - Sources: C.Barraud, Bloomberg
S&P 500 profit margin in Q4 2021: 13.4% S&P 500 profit margin in Q4 2022: 10.9%
Source: Charlie Bilello
S&P 500 Q4 GAAP earnings are down 29% year-over-year
With 84% of companies reported, S&P 500 Q4 GAAP earnings are down 29% year-over-year, the 3rd straight quarter of negative YoY growth and the largest decline since Q2 2020. Source: Charlie Bilello
