Biden betting odds (blue line) fall after US President calls Ukraine’s Zelensky ‘President Putin’ in latest brutal gaffe, but corrects himself.
Trump odds (in red) now stand at 59% while Harris odds (in green) increased to 27% Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ, FT
Yesterday was a big ROTATION day on US equities market with small-caps hugely outperforming large-caps
Indeed, small-cap Russell 2,000 gained 3%+ while the S&P 500 fell on the day. The only other day that happened was back on 10/10/2008... Investors probaby have these 2 charts in mind: 1) The HUGE underperformance of small caps vs large aps over the recent years; 2) History showing that Small caps outperform AFTER the first rate cut. The lower than expected US CPI iunflation number for June acted as a trigger for the rotation with hedge funds being forced to cover their long large / short small par trades. Source: Bloomberg, DB, RBC
It has now been over 220 days without a 5% pullback in the S&P 500, the 3rd longest streak in the last 10 years.
The last time a 5% correction occurred was in the second half of 2023. Overall, over the last 34 years, the longest stretch lasted for ~550 days in 2016-2018. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has skyrocketed by 33% since October and 15% year-to-date in one of its best rallies in years. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Goldman Sachs
That RTY (Russell 2000) / NDX (Nasdaq 100) spread was over 600bps at its peak today.
By the close it was the biggest relative outperformance of the Russell 2000 over Nasdaq 100 since 2002... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Is the Bank of Japan intervening again trying to prevent the Yen from falling further against the U.S. Dollar?
barchart
US manufacturing mega-boom in 2 images
Source: Science is Strategic, The Economist
US supercore CPI is negative MoM for the 2nd month in a row
zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
Gold >2400 as markets believe lower than expected CPI report is opening the door to rate cuts by the FED starting in September.
Source: www.zerohedge.com
