Some new developments in Taiwan's presidential & legislative elections.
The DDP’s Lai Ching-te won Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election on Saturday with 40% of the vote, but the ruling party failed to hold onto its parliamentary majority. Pro-Beijing Kuomintang, or KMT, won 52 seats in the legislature — one more than the DPP which lost 10 seats in Taiwan’s parliament from its previous 61, giving up its majority. Lai Ching-te will face a split parliament that will likely moderate his policy agenda, with Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) seen as the king maker with eight seats since neither of the two major parties won an outright majority in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan. What’s next? The split legislature) will mean the Lai administration will struggle to pass much of his agenda unless either coordinating with the TPP or just focusing on the few areas where there may be broader consensus. The outcome could see President Lai embracing a more restrained China policy — particularly since KMT and TPP have advocated a more conciliatory posture — even as Beijing is likely to ramp up pressure on Taiwan’s government when Lai is officially inaugurated as president in May. The new parliament will take office next month. Beijing will pay particular attention to signals from Lai’s inauguration speech. Apart from military exercises, Beijing may also impose new tariffs or sanction Taiwanese companies that are political donors to the DPP. Source: CNBC
India stocks vs. china stocks
Source: Mac10
Key takeaways from Taiwan's President election;
1) Re-elected President Lai Ching-te (DPP party) favors closer ties with the US and an expected status quo regarding the situation of Taiwan and the existing relationships. We don’t expect any significant change in Taiwan’s policies 2) We note that US President Biden statement post-election has been very balanced (Official congratulations to Lai-Ching Te but no support to Taiwan independence vote) Source: Bloomberg
Taiwan Semiconductor is trading at a political discount, which is unlikely to narrow after the election of the China-critical candidate Lai Ching-te.
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
China skeptic Lai Ching-te wins Taiwan’s presidential election
Ruling-party candidate Lai Ching-te emerged victorious in Taiwan’s presidential election, a man Beijing has labeled an “instigator of war”, in a vote that has enormous geopolitical implications across not just the Taiwan Strait, but between the US and China, too. Lai’s victory represents an unprecedented democratic milestone: the 1st time a political party in Taiwan has won a 3rd straight presidential election. Kuomintang or KMT, Beijing’s preferred political partner, gained roughly 33% of the vote. Beijing has repeatedly labeled Lai as a “stubborn worker for Taiwan independence” and a dangerous separatist. There are also fears this could in turn influence frosty China-U.S. relations and security in the broader Indo-Pacific region. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg, CNBC
China vs. Japan in one chart! Japanese stocks have outperformed their Chinese counterparts by a whopping 63% since the start of 2023.
Source: Jeroen Blokland
A few days ahead of Taiwan election... Taiwan: the island that matters - or why Taiwan is important to China, USA and the rest of the world...
Imagine the implications of any blocade or invasion on the semiconductor value chain and the magnificent7... Source: BBC
BREAKING: Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index rises above 34,000 for the first time since March 1990. Breakout from a 30-year base!
- Breakout + test from 30-year base (blue circle) - Successful test of 2nd base (purple circle) - $NIKKEI now trading at 34-year high - Still below ATH recorded in 1989 - Yen is undervalued by ~40% on PPP-basis (source: ) Along with hitting a fresh 33-year high, Japan's stock market is now up 120% from its low in 2020. Both technology and health care stocks have been the main drivers. Recently, Warren Buffett began betting on a recovery of Japan's economy. Japan is back in a bull market.
