As a remainder, Bank of Japan (8301.JP) is a tradeable stock so you can buy some if you wish
Note that the chart does not look pretty... Maybe the market doesn't give much credibility to the management? Source: www.zerohedge.com
BREAKING: The yen falls near 150 after the Bank of Japan makes only modest tweaks to its yield control program, defying market expectations
Japan’s centralbank decided to make its yield curve control (YCC) policy more flexible, shifting the language used to describe the upper bound of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield. The BoJ said it will patiently continue monetary easing under YCC to support economic activities. BOJ makes the decisions on YCC by an 8-1 vote. The decision is sending the $USDJPY back to above 150.
The race to raise rates summarized in one chart
Source: LSEG Datastream, Reuters
When will the Fed start cutting rates?
This chart from James Bianco is derived from market pricing. The first cut is currently priced for August 2024 (top panel), or 337 days away (bottom panel). Notice the first cut is always about 10 to 12 months away. It never gets any closer.
ECB's Lagarde: "Rate cuts weren't discussed, would be totally premature".
Meanwhile, markets see the first ECB cut at April 2024 meeting. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
How long does it take for the FED to break the corporate bond market?
2008 : 1 year of plateau, resulted in credit event after another 1 full year. (Total 2 years) 2020 : 7 months of plateau, resulted in credit event after 6 months. (Total 13 months, 54% of 2008) 2023 : it's been 3 months into plateau so far. Chart made from MacroMicroMe - source: James Choi
Quantitative tightening (QT) may have taken a backseat in recent months, but is still very much in vogue
Source: BofA, TME
The SP500 has now lost $3.5 trillion in value since the Fed removed a recession from their forecast
The Fed marked the exact high in July 2023 with their "no recession" call. Since then, the S&P 500 is down 9% and just hit its lowest level since May 31st. We are also 1% away from entering correction territory just as earnings season begins. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
