About 85% of SP500 companies are now in buyback blackout, taking away some of the important supportive flows ahead of Q2 earnings season.
Source: Markets & Mayhem, GS
Robinhood launches layer-2 blockchain for stock trading in Europe
Robinhood is offering tokenized US stocks and ETFs on the Arbitrum blockchain to users in Europe. Robinhood’s push into real-world assets (RWAs) is gaining momentum, with the digital brokerage launching a tokenization-focused layer-2 blockchain and introducing stock token trading for users in the European Union. Built on Arbitrum, the new layer-2 network will enable the issuance of over 200 US stock and exchange-traded fund (ETF) tokens, giving European investors access to US assets, Robinhood announced on Monday. Robinhood’s stock tokens will have zero commissions and be available for trading 24 hours a day, five days a week.
Bears on oxygen... $SPY and $QQQ hit all-time highs
Source: Stocktwits
Strategy $MSTR was up 5% yesterday.
With $BTC closing the quarter above $105k, it means that MSTR quarterly income is likely to be above $12 billion. As a consequence, Strategy has officially qualified for consideration for S&P 500 inclusion in September. Is the S&P 500 front running starting? Here's what you need to know as highlighted by My Top 5 Crypto @mytop5crypto on X 📈 1. Q2 2025 Profit Surge (~$22B+) •The company is expected to report an unrealized gain of around $22.7 billion on its BTC holdings for Q2 2025 potentially the largest quarterly profit in its history. •This gain emerges from its nearly 600,000 BTC stash, acquired at an average cost around $66K per coin. •Thanks to a recent FASB accounting change, these fair value gains are now included in net income, unlike prior quarters which showed losses despite rising Btc prices. 📊 2. S&P 500 Inclusion: Poised, But Not Guaranteed What Needs to Happen for Inclusion: •A company must: 1.Have a market cap above ~$20.5 billion. 2.Maintain sufficient float and liquidity. 3.Post positive GAAP net income in the latest quarter and cumulatively over the past four quarters. •Strategy currently satisfies the first two metrics. The missing piece was profitability, but Q2’s record gain may close that gap. •Analyst Jeff Walton estimates a 91% chance of S&P inclusion if Bitcoin holds above ~$95,240 through June 30. The company did maintain that threshold through the quarter’s end. ✅ Potential Catalysts: •Index fund inflows: If Strategy joins the S&P 500, passive funds (like SPY) must buy in pushing demand and share price higher. •Broader impact on BTC exposure: It could cement Strategy as a mainstream BTC proxy within traditional portfolios. ⚠️ Key Risks: •Highly tied to BTC: Volatility in BTC directly impacts its earnings and eligibility; a significant correction could destabilize earnings. •Unrealized gains only: Booked on paper via fair value accounting, but not actual cash unless they sell. •Margins & core biz stagnant: Its BI and analytics division still shows declining revenue and a hefty operating expense buildup.
Here are the best performing S&P 500 stocks from the first half of 2025
🥇 Palantir $PLTR +78.8%🟢 🥈 NRG Energy $NRG +78.2%🟢 🥉 Howmet $HWM +70.4%🟢 Source: yahoofinance
On April 8, the S&P 500 was down 15% in 2025, the 4th worst start to a year in history.
After one of the greatest comebacks ever, it's now up over 6% YTD and above the average year at this point in time. There is no impossible in markets. Source: Charlie Bilello
Don't forget, FX effect is a very important component in total returns...
As highlighted by Jeroen Blokland, while the SP500 Index is close to a record high in US dollar terms, in euro, the index is down 11% from its peak in February. The euro has reached its highest level since September 2021, which hurts euro-denominated investors. Source: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg
This chart from, BNP / EPFR indicates that the strong outperformance of European stocks this year was primarily driven by US investors shifting their investments into Europe.
In contrast, European investors made only modest shifts. Source: HolgerZ
