Will this time be different?
Source: BofA
The biggest outperformance of small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks, over a 5-day period, in history.
Data starts in 1978 Source: Jim Bianco
The NYSE A-D Line keeps making new highs. The US equity bull market is not just 7 stocks.
It's not just Tech. And it's not just large-caps. Yes some correction and rotation can take place from time to time. But it remains a bull market until proven otherwise. It's just a bull market... And it has been for over 2 years now. Source: J-C Parets
Global chip stocks from Nvidia to ASML fall on geopolitics, Trump comments.
Global chip stocks fell sharply, with ASML , Nvidia and TSMC posting declines amid reports of tighter export restrictions from the U.S. and a ramp-up of geopolitical tensions fueled by comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump. ASML’s Netherlands-listed shares were down 11%, while Tokyo Electron shares in Japan closed nearly 7.5% lower. The moves came after Bloomberg on Wednesday reported that the Biden administration is considering a wide-sweeping rule to clamp down on companies exporting their critical chipmaking equipment to China. Washington’s foreign direct product rule, or FDPR, allows the U.S. to put controls on foreign-made products even if they use the smallest amount of American technology. This can affect non-U.S. companies. Source: CNBC
Us small caps are up 6.8% over the last 3 trading days while US Large Caps are flat.
The 6.8% spread is 6 standard deviations above the mean & the 3rd largest small outperformance since inception of the first small cap ETF in May 2000. $IWM $SPY Source: Charlie Bilello
Us and China tech stocks have now become completely decoupled from each other, from a markets perspective.
David Ingles: "The 40-day correlation of $QQQ & $KWEB has turned negative. These are two behaviourally different assets FOR NOW. What might be good for one, may not necessarily boost the other. Chart underscores many global stories: difference in AI representation in each market, tech decoupling, geopolitical rifts, economies in different parts of their cycles". Source: David Ingles on X, Bloomberg
Weak China demand is weighing on European luxury & consumer discretionary stocks.
- Swatch Group (UHR SW) reported a steep fall in first half sales and earnings on Monday as the world’s biggest watchmaker struggled with weaker demand in China. The company’s drop in turnover was triggered by a slump in demand for luxury goods in China, including Hong Kong and Macau, with only the Swatch brand bucking the negative trend, increasing its sales in China by 10%, the company said in a statement. - Hugo Boss (BOSS GY) shares plunged as much as 10% Tuesday after the company cut its sales outlook. The German fashion house said Monday that it expects full-year sales of up to 4.35 billion euros ($4.73 billion) on macroeconomic challenges, particularly in China. The retailer becomes the latest high-end fashion line to warn of persistent woes in the luxury sector. Source: CNBC
US equity futures traders have never, ever been 'longer' than they are now...
Source: GS
