Q4 earnings season officially kicks off yesterday.
Source: Brew markets
The Great American Oil Paradox
The U.S. is executing a unique energy “double-play,” exporting massive amounts of light, sweet shale crude while still importing heavy, sour oil to match its legacy refinery infrastructure. This paradox being both a top exporter and importer makes the country the central hinge of the global oil market. Far from a weakness, this interdependence gives the U.S. leverage, allowing it to balance supply and influence prices worldwide as we head into 2026. Source: Jack Prandelli
Believe it or not, investor's positioning on equities is still not over-extended.
Deutsche Bank: "Notably, while investor sentiment has risen meaningfully over the last 6 weeks, positioning in our reading has not yet followed, with discretionary investors are still holding cautiously near neutral (0.09sd, 51st percentile). Systematic strategy positioning though is higher (0.71sd, 82nd percentile)." Source: DB, TME
Long EM. Short US large caps.
Is the Dalio playbook about to break out? Source: Trend Spider
VIX seasonality is about to kick in right here...
Source: Equity clock, The Market Ear
The defense squeeze
European aero and defense index, SXPARO, has surged by some 13% YTD. The squeeze has been absolutely huge since the start of the week, with RSI now trading at 80! Source: The Market Ear, LSEG Workspace
President Trump says he is banning dividends and buybacks for Defense companies.
📉 $LMT | $RTX | $NOC | $GD Source: Trend Spider
President Trump announces steps to ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes.
"People live in homes, not corporations." Blackstone shares are tumbling. Source: Brew markets
