BREAKING 🚨: Europe
European stocks are underperforming the S&P 500 by the largest amount in history. Source: Barchart
In Germany, too few business leaders are involved in politics, which has made the bureaucracy stronger.
In the current legislative period, only 51 of the 735 Bundestag members are entrepreneurs —the lowest number in years (the yellow seats below). Between 2017 and 2021, there were still 76. Top executives or major entrepreneurs have rarely held ministerial positions in the history of the Federal Republic. A notable exception was Werner Müller, the late former head of Ruhrkohle AG, who served as Economics Minister under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder from 1998 to 2002. Source: Statista, HolgerZ
Trump threatens tariffs if the EU doesn't buy more US oil and gas
The President-elect said he told the EU they must "make up their tremendous deficit" with large scale purchases of American fuel The US is the world's top LNG exporter, and the biggest Oil producer. Source: Stephen Stapczynsk
The economic weakness in Germany is becoming chronic.
The Ifo Business Index fell to 84.7 in December, down from 85.6 in November –its lowest level since May 2020. This is far below the long-term average of 96.6 and looks weak even compared to recent years. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the index has averaged just 88.2. The latest drop was driven by a sharp decline in the expectations component, which fell from 87 in November to 84.4 in Dec. Analysts polled by Bloomberg had predicted a slight uptick and none saw a retreat of that scale. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
French PMI big warning:
The drop in employment was the largest since the pandemic, with the political situation often cited by firms as a reason to be downbeat. Source: Frederic Ducrozet
European Stocks trading at an all-time record discount relative to US Stocks
Source: Barchart, Blackrock
GERMAN ENERGY PRICES ARE EXPLODING
This is not going to help... German power prices SPIKED to the levels seen during the 2022 energy CRISIS. Day-ahead prices for 5pm-6pm skyrocketed to the highest in 20 YEARS. This comes as wind generation plummeted as there has been almost no wind in recent days. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
There is a reason why Americans are wealthier than others and keep getting wealthier.
What went wrong in Europe? 25 years ago Europe was more productive than the US. Source: Michael A. Arouet @MichaelAArouet
