In case you missed it: Germany’s private sector economy unexpectedly returned to growth in June.
The composite PMI rose to 50.4, up from 48.5 in May, signaling a move back into expansion territory. Manufacturing – a key sector for Germany – saw its PMI climb to 49, the highest level since 2022. While still below the long-term avg of 51.6, it's a notable improvement. The sector appears to be benefiting strongly from falling interest rates, which may help explain why Germany is currently outperforming much of the rest of the Eurozone. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
In case you missed it: Italy's total government debt has topped €3tn, for the 1st time ever.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Gold overtakes Euro as 2nd most important global reserve asset, ECB says.
The share of gold in total official foreign reserves increased to 20% due to historically high gold prices and purchases. Source: HolgerZ, IMF
Poland continues to buy gold as if there was no tomorrow
Source: Michel A.Arouet, IMF
French-Italian 10y spread dropped below 25 bp this morning.
It was 115 bp at the start of last year… En route to zero? Source: Stephane Deo on X, Eleva Capital, Bloomberg
Portugal might bring back enhanced tax incentives, just for Golden Visa investors.
A 20% flat tax on local income. 0% on foreign income. Basically NHR 1.0… but gated behind a Golden Visa. If this passes, will demand explode? Source: Alessandro Palombo, Forbes
ECB lowered interest rates for the 8th time in a year after inflation dipped <2% and the economy suffered repeated blows from US tariffs.
ECB cut the deposit rate by 25bps to 2% and reiterated that it’s not pre-committing to a particular path. ECB balance sheet shrank to €6.3tn. Note that ECB deposit rate has fallen below the German inflation rate for the first time since September 2023. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
European markets have outperformed the US this year.
Poland, the Czech Republic, and Austria have grown their market capitalization by 44%, 36%, and 33%, respectively. Next are Hungary, Spain, Luxembourg, Greece, and Germany. The US has been flat. Source: Global Markets Investor
