In Germany, the latest Ifo Business Climate Index suggests the economy is holding up surprisingly well despite rising tariffs.
The index edged up from 88.4 in June to 88.6 in July – slightly below expectations (89.0). This marks the 7th consecutive monthly improvement, this month driven mainly by better assessments of current business conditions. However, underlying growth remains weak. According to Capital Economics, the survey results remain consistent w/a GDP contraction based on long-term historical patterns. That said, the Ifo has not been a reliable predictor of GDP in recent years. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
German business activity continued to grow marginally in July, though at a slightly slower pace than in June.
The German flash composite PMI fell to 50.3 points in July, down from 50.4 in June and below the 50.7 forecast in a Reuters poll. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Nvidia $NVDA is now less than $600 Billion away from having a higher market cap than the entire Euro Stoxx 50 (largest 50 stocks in Europe) 🚨🚨🚨
Source: Bloomberg, Barchart
Germany is losing its edge on trade. The country’s share in global trade has been shrinking since 2017, w/losses accelerating after 2021, according to Bundesbank.
Over three-quarters of the decline from 2021 to 2023 was due to falling competitiveness – not Trump’s tariffs Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
This is probably what Trump doesn't like with the latest US inflation reports and subsequent inaction by the fed.
The EU inflation rate excludes shelter, do the same with US CPI, and they match. Yet Fed Funds is 250bps higher than the ECB rate. What Trump does not take into account is that the inflationary effects of tariffs might soon hit. Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA, Fundstrat
Europe has a massive electricity problem...
According to a FT article, thousands of businesses and households are waiting to connect to the Dutch grid, forcing network operators to ration power in an early indicator of what other European countries are likely to suffer as the speed of electrification increases. More than 11,900 businesses are waiting for electricity network connections, according to Netbeheer Nederland, the association of Dutch grid operators. On top of that are public buildings such as hospitals and fire stations as well as thousands of new houses. Dutch officials and companies said lengthy waits for connections were holding up economic growth and could force businesses to rethink their investment plans. Despite efforts to invest in new cables and substations, new connections in some areas of the country will only become available in the mid-2030s, according to network operators. Although the bottlenecks in the Netherlands are particularly acute, analysts say it is a harbinger of what is likely to occur in other EU countries, as the speed of electrification increases to meet the bloc’s ambitious decarbonisation targets.
JP Morgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon warned European leaders they have a competitiveness problem and that they are currently “losing” the battle to rival the US and China.
“Europe has gone from 90 per cent US GDP to 65 per cent over 10 or 15 years. That’s not good,” Dimon said at an event in Dublin organised by the Irish foreign ministry. “You’re losing.” The comments from Dimon, one of the most influential voices in global finance, underscore the challenges facing the EU as it battles to invigorate its economy. Mario Draghi, the continent’s former top central banker, last year demanded a new industrial strategy for Europe with annual investment of €800bn to maintain competitiveness with the US and China. “We’ve got this huge strong market and our companies are big and successful, have huge kinds of scale that are global. You have that, but less and less,” Dimon said. It is an even blunter message from Dimon than he made in his most recent annual shareholder meeting in April, where he said “Europe has some serious issues to fix”, and urged European nations to “significantly reform their economies so they can grow”. Source: FT
Euro makes new all-time highs every day in trade weighted terms.
Indeed, many countries - above all China - are pegged to the dollar. That supercharges the rise in Euro vs USD (white), taking Euro to stratospheric levels in trade-weighted terms (orange). Is inflation coming for the Euro zone... Source: Bloomberg, Robin Brooks
