LVMH on Monday shared its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, revealing that sales fell 3% to €20.3 billion EUR in the three months ending March 31.
Per Reuters, the results were well below analysts’ expectations of 2% growth, as the conglomerate struggles to buoy amid the ongoing luxury slowdown. The group’s key fashion and leather goods division, which houses heavyweight names like Louis Vuitton, LOEWE, Dior, and Fendi, saw sales fall 5%. Notably, analysts forecasted a 0.55% decline in the category, which makes up 75% of LVMH’s overall profit. Elsewhere, the company’s wine and spirits division saw sales decline by 9%, while perfume and cosmetics both dropped by 1%. Watches and jewelry, meanwhile, remained constant. The cause of such sluggish numbers is one part caused by post-pandemic spending fatigue, another the product of high inflation rates, and a third the product of a slowing economy, mounting debt crisis, and real estate crash in China, a target market for high-end labels. In the US, President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements have eliminated any hopes that American shoppers would spend more on luxury this year. Source: Quartr, Hypebeast
The Euro is now the strongest vs the dollar going back to 2023, with some of the most violent moves we've seen over the past decade.
Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowicz
Germany is the european country the most sensitive to global trade according to Goldman - see chart below
According to Goldman Sachs, the Dax and MDax have a beta of 1.9 to world trade growth — meaning they tend to move almost twice as strongly w/changes in global trade. That’s much higher than the US market, which has a beta of 1.4. In contrast, the UK’s FTSE 100 is less exposed to global trade, thanks to its defensive sector mix and the UK’s services-driven economy. The Swiss SMI is similarly more insulated. It’s also a defensive index, and Swiss exports are generally less sensitive to global demand, as they often consist of high-tech, specialized products. Source: HolgerZ, Goldman Sachs
European tech
Source: The Economist
🔴 EU TO TRUMP: TWO CAN PLAY THE TARIFF GAME — BIG TECH MAY GET BURNED
👉 With Trump slapping 25% tariffs on EU cars and threatening more, Brussels is plotting a counter strike — and this time, it’s not just bourbon and blue jeans on the line. 👉 EU officials are eyeing U.S. services exports, including Big Tech and intellectual property, as leverage — think blocked patents, frozen software updates, and Starlink losing out on juicy contracts. 👉EU diplomat: “The Americans think that they are the ones with escalation dominance, but we also have the ability to do that,” Source: FT thru Mario Nawfal on X
⚠️German economic outlooks remains DIRE:
In 2024 the world's 3rd largest economy FELL by 0.2% following a 0.3% decline in 2023. This is the 2nd time since 1950 that GDP contracted for 2 years in a row. German IFO Economic Research Institute expects just 0.2% growth in 2025. Source. Global Markets Investor
🔴 Germany’s 10-year bond yield rising to 4% is “entirely feasible” as a reset in the country’s borrowing costs plays out, according to Aviva Investors.
The rate surged to nearly 3% in recent weeks as Germany’s incoming chancellor spearheaded a huge spending package that is expected to lead to billions of euros in extra bond sales. Vasileios Gkionakis, senior economist and strategist at Aviva Investors, says yields are likely to keep rising as the fiscal measures boost economic growth. ➡️ 4% for German 10-Year Bund would mean German mortgages at 5% to 6% and the burst of the epic German real estate bubble. Would it also mean Italian, Spanish and French bonds yields at a level that could trigger the next Euro crisis. Good luck. Source: Bloomberg
CTAs are short -$34B of US equities and long $52B of European equities.
This is the largest spread we have EVER seen. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $FEZ Source: David Marlin Marlin Capital Solutions
