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25 Jan 2024

German manufacturing had been in crisis well before Russia invaded Ukraine

Putin's invasion only made this structural decline worse. Europe has an easy offset to this: a weaker currency. Euro needs to fall well below parity to offset the crisis in European manufacturing... Source: Robin Brooks

5 Jan 2024

German inflation has accelerated again, at least the headline rate

CPI rose to 3.7% in December from 3.2% in November due to base effect. But Core CPI has fallen further to 3.5% in Dec from 3.8% in November. This means that core inflation is once again below headline inflation. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

4 Jan 2024

A remarkable chart. The sector composition probably does not explain everything

Source: Michel A.Arouet

20 Dec 2023

German federal government is set to trim federal debt sales next year following the German top court's 'debt brake' ruling. Berlin plans to issue ~€440bn in debt

That compares with a record volume of ~€500bn in 2023 Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

14 Dec 2023

Times are tough for European industry, which is having to adapt to climate-friendly regulations, higher energy costs and increased competition from Chinese producers

German industry has seen production fall by -2.3% this year; worst of the four biggest eurozone economies. Source: Gavekal

11 Dec 2023

An overview of European real estate price indices by Bloomberg / HolgerZ:

A shortage of housing has led to record real estate prices in ireland. The national property price index has now reached a value of 170.0, which is 3.9% above its bubble peak in April 2007. Property prices have increased by 113% in past 10yrs. Recent Dublin riots exposed the anger of Irish Youth facing a housing crisis resulting from the high housing & rent prices. Note the decline in German house prices (in purple) and steady markets in Italy / Portugal / Spain.

6 Dec 2023

Most of this year's Dax rally is driven by higher EPS expectations, not P/E expansion. Dax has gained 18% year-to-date while Dax P/E has expanded only 6% from 11.5 to 12.2

Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

4 Dec 2023

Political position of the largest party in each European country

(map by try.balkan/instagram) Source: OnlMaps

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