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The attack on Israel by Iran was feared by markets already last week and partly explains the pullback on Friday.
When the attack happened last night, bitcoin and cryptos (which are the only assets traded over the week-end) went down substantially (-10% in 30 minutes for the bitcoin). But it seems that the fact that 1) Israel and US were able to intercept the vast majority of drones and missiles; 2) Biden administration comment that they will not support any Israel counter-attack seem to calm down investors for the time being. Indeed, President Biden told Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a call on Saturday that the U.S. won't support any Israeli counterattack against Iran, a senior White House official told Axios. Bottom-line: Further escalation does not seem to be the core scenario at this stage. This morning, Bitcoin is back to $64k/$65k and Israeli stocks open slightly higher after Iran drone attack foiled. TA 35 index is up 0.5% after opening but trade remains nervous. However, stocks in the Arab world are down. Saudi Arabia’s main bourse opened 1.2% lower. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
- " president prime minister benjamin netanyahu during call saturday that u.s. won't any against iran, senior white house official axios. -> why it matters: and his advisers are highly concerned response to iran's attack israel would lead regional war with catastrophic consequences, officials said. a defense earlier said forces in region shot down iranian-launched drones targeting israel. joint defensive efforts by israel, other countries led failure of iranian attack, according official. "you netanyahu, the when will not participate offensive operations iran such operations, he understood. secretary defense lloyd austin spoke counterpart yoav gallant asked notify ahead source: axios https: lnkd.in etev2wwm&source="https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/breaking-no-wwiii...-biden-told-bibi-u.s.-wont-support-an-israeli-counterattack-on-iran...you-got-a-win.-take-the-win-biden-told-netanyahu'" target="_blank">
BREAKING >>> No WWIII... Biden told Bibi U.S. won't support an Israeli counterattack on Iran..."You got a win. Take the win," Biden told Netanyahu
-> President Biden told Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a call on Saturday that the U.S. won't support any Israeli counterattack against Iran, a senior White House official told Axios. -> Why it matters: Biden and his senior advisers are highly concerned an Israeli response to Iran's attack on Israel would lead to a regional war with catastrophic consequences, U.S. officials said. -> A U.S. defense official earlier said U.S. forces in the region shot down Iranian-launched drones targeting Israel. -> Biden told Netanyahu the joint defensive efforts by Israel, the U.S. and other countries in the region led to the failure of the Iranian attack, according to the White House official. -> "You got a win. Take the win," Biden told Netanyahu, according to the official. -> The official said that when Biden told Netanyahu that the U.S. will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran and will not support such operations, Netanyahu said he understood. -> U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke on Saturday with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant and asked that Israel notify the U.S. ahead of any response against Iran, a senior Israeli official said. Source: Axios https://lnkd.in/etEV2wwm
The S&P 500's performance has been truly outstanding this year.
The index is up 9% year to date which is more than DOUBLE the average YTD return in an election year. In the past, the median return during a US presidential election year was about 11%. There are still several months until the presidential election but the index is on track to significantly exceed its historical performance. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Oil prices have officially broken above $85.00 for the first time since October 2023.
Since the December 2023 low, oil prices are up over 25% as geopolitical tensions have escalated. This comes as PPI, CPI and PCE inflation all posted year-over-year increases in February. Demand forecasts are being raised and supply disruption risks continue to rise. Higher oil prices are simply just the new normal in the post-pandemic world. Is the fight against inflation really over? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
In a surprise Monday ruling, SCOTUS determined Donald Trump is eligible to run for office again
The decision is a massive victory for Trump, whose eligibility on Colorado's ballot was challenged. The decision was issued one day ahead of Super Tuesday when 16 states will hold primary elections. Source: Business Insider
Another damming poll for Biden: With 8 mths left until Nov election, Joe Biden’s 43% support lags behind Donald Trump’s 48% in the national survey of registered voters
The share of voters who strongly disapprove of President Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47%, higher than at any point in his presidency. The betting markets are now also backing Trump. PredictIt has him 6%-pts ahead. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Why Europeans are nervous about NATO without the US in one chart
Source: Michel A.Arouet
In an US election year, the spread between “Job Creation” and job “approval rating on the economy” has NEVER been wider...
Source: Mohamed A. El-Erian
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