Syz the moment

summarized in one cartoon... Maybe the US deserve better... 😅 Source: Markets & Mayhem 🤖

President Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating fell to the lowest level in three months, delivering a boost to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party just two days before voting starts in France’s legislative election. Support for Macron dropped six points to 36%, the worst showing since March, according to a Toluna-Harris Interactive poll for LCI TV published on Friday. Source: Bloomberg

Source: USA today

Prior to the debate, markets saw an 86% chance that Biden would win the nomination. Now, there's a 38% chance that he WON'T be nominated as the Democratic candidate. There's a 22% chance that Gavin Newsom wins the nomination and a rising 14% chance of Kamala Harris being the nominee. The one of the largest shifts in market implied odds of all time for an election that is less than 5 months out. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Odds of Trump winning Presidential election has surged to 60% (red line below) while odds of Biden winning has collapsed (blue line below) due to the very poor performance of incumbent President during yesterday's evening political debate with Trump. As highlighted by Politico >>> "The alarm bells for Democrats started ringing the second Biden started speaking in a haltingly hoarse voice. Minutes into the debate, he struggled to mount an effective defense of the economy on his watch and flubbed the description of key health initiatives he’s made central to his reelection bid, saying “we finally beat Medicare” and incorrectly stating how much his administration lowered the price of insulin. He talked himself into a corner on Afghanistan, bringing up his administration’s botched withdrawal unprompted. He repeatedly mixed up “billion” and “million,” and found himself stuck for long stretches of the 90-minute debate playing defense. And when he wasn’t speaking, he stood frozen behind his podium, mouth agape, his eyes wide and unblinking for long stretches of time"... Rumors are now running wild on whether the Democrats should replace their candidate in a last minute turnaround

It seems that Democrats will look urgently for a new nominee. Indeed, Many of the Democratic Party’s top fundraisers are privately sounding the alarm after President Joe Biden’s disappointing debate performance Thursday against Republican former President Donald Trump. “Disaster,” said a Biden donor who plans to attend a fundraiser with the president on Saturday in the Hamptons. “This is terrible. Worse than I thought was possible. Everyone I’m speaking with thinks Biden should drop out,” said the person, who was granted anonymity in order to recount private conversations. CNBC began hearing from worried Democratic campaign donors and fundraisers less than 20 minutes into the 90-minute debate hosted by CNN. “Game over,” said a longtime Democratic campaign advisor, who has been raising money for congressional leaders for over a decade and helped raise money for Biden’s 2020 White House bid. https://lnkd.in/eWanGba8

Hollande is running for a seat in Parliament and Macron didn't put any candidate in front of him. In the (plausible) scenario of a hung parliament, Hollande could be chosen by Macron as Prime Minister of a unity government.

Source: The Hill