Is the market pricing in a Trump victory?
Based on Goldman's Republican winners vs losers basket performance, it appears stocks are moving in sync with Trump's odds. Source: www.zerohedge.com
During the election year, the averages tell us that it's going to be sideways to lower for the next 2 months...
Source: Grant Hawkridge
In France, 3 out of the 4 favorite political leaders are from the far right...
1) Marine Le Pen (RN) 40%; 3) Jordan Bardella (RN) 37%; and 4) Marion Marechal Le Pen (Reconquête) 29%. Source: Le Figaro Verian - EPOKA / February poll
Suez Canal Transit Volume continues to plunge (Chart via SRP)
Source: HolgerZ
Goldman Client Survey Shows Geopolitics Is Biggest Risk in 2024 –
Source: Bloomberg
The Red Sea's inflation threat:
The disruptions in the Red Sea have roiled global supply chains and pushed up freight costs. The Houthis have pledged a “big” response to airstrikes. Iran wins either way w/US airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Red Sea Transit Volume
Source: BofA, Win Smart
Iran seizes oil tanker involved in U.S. dispute off coast of Oman. Crude oil is up 2% on the news
-> Iran has captured an oil tanker previously involved in a Washington-Tehran dispute over carrying U.S.-sanctioned crude, state media said. -> Earlier on Thursday, the U.K. Marine Trade Operations said an unnamed tanker was boarded by armed individuals near the Gulf of Oman and appeared to change course toward Iranian waters. .> The tanker is embroiled in a dispute between Iran and the U.S. and previously surrendered Iranian crude to U.S. authorities following allegations of sanctions violations. -> Bloomberg confirmed that the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker "St Nikolas" is the vessel that was hijacked. A previous report says that St Nikolas was seized by the US last year, sailing under a different name, "Suez Rajan," for transporting unauthorized Iranian cargo. -> Empire Navigation, the vessel's operator, said the tanker was loaded with 145,000 tons of crude from the Iraqi port of Basra and was en route to Aliaga in western Turkey through the Suez Canal. It noted all communication with the vessel had been lost. -> The hijacking incident was near another chokepoint: the Hormuz Strait between Oman and Iran.
