Goldman's gold forecast
"We remains structurally bullish on gold, and still see upside risk to our 4,900/toz End-2026 forecast" Source: zerohedge
Goldman on gold's Tuesday flush:
"The best answer we have for the largest % move in 10 years is (simply) positioning, and that we’ve rallied for 9 consecutive weeks. The ease of trading an ETF for quick exposure has been on full display; as of [Tuesday's] close $GLD accounted for 8% of all notional US-listed ETF volumes, its largest share of activity in our dataset. Flows on the ETF desks skewed (unsurprisingly) strongly better for sale today". Source: Neil Sethi
🟢 BTC +3% 🔴 GOLD −6%
Some rotation from gold into bitcoin? Source: Trend Spider
Gold is giving us a lesson in statistics. Yesterday's −5.7% move is a rare 4.46-sigma move.
In a “normal” world, that’s once every 240,000 trading days. In reality −4.67% to −6.00% occurred 34 times since 1971, i.e. in 13,088 trading days (0.26% = 1 in 385 days). Even bigger drawdowns happened 21 times since 1971. Message: Gold is NOT low-vol. FOMO caused the latest leg up. Now, profit taking and weak hands got shaken out. Means? Statistically speaking, chances are that calmer days are ahead. Source: Alexander Stahel 🌻@BurggrabenH on X
In gold terms, the S&P 500 is down nearly 30% so far this year.
The decline is about to surpass 2008 as the worst year for the index in gold terms in over two decades. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
The Short Term Risk For Gold
Gold volatility, GVZ, has exploded to the upside. Everybody underexposed to gold has grabbed calls with both hands, pushing volatilities to extremes. Theta is painfully expensive up here. Once gold pauses or reverses, this could turn into a major headwind. Source: The Market Ear
The long-term potential for GOLD
The current gold secular bull market tracking higher than the early-2000s move and lower than the 1970s bull. Source: @3F_Research, Warren Pies This is not an investment
The Gold ETF ended yesterday's session at its most overbought level on record (monthly RSI). Today it is down 4%
$GLD Source. Charlie Biello
