US Treasuries were bid this week due to the search of "safe havens" on the back of Middle East turmoil
However, ugly auctions on Thursday came as a harsh remainder of the unfavourable supply/demand situation faced by US Treasuries. On the supply side, there is a tsunami of notes and bonds that is going to flood the market. And it is occurring while the Fed, under its QT program, is letting about $60 billion a month in maturing Treasury securities roll off the balance sheet without replacement. With the Fed reducing its holdings, that tsunami of notes and bonds being issued will have to find buyers, and those buyers will have to be enticed by yields. Unless inflation and growth slow down meaningfully, yields are unlikely to drop aggressively. Source: www.wolfstreet.com, Bloomberg
Big opportunities ahead for fixed income investors?
The past three years' pain in bonds could indeed be setting the stage for outsized gains ahead. To put the decline into perspective, long-term government bonds, with maturities greater than 20 years, have dropped 50% from their 2020 peak, a drawdown that is comparable to the 56% decline in stocks during the height of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 Source: Edward Jones
9% of bonds are set to mature in the next 2 years → The highest level since the Financial Crisis
High interest rates will make refinancing more difficult Source: Game of Trades
BREAKING: A record 447,000 Americans are now working 2 full-time jobs, per Joe Consorti
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
Good news :)
If you exclude everything you need from the basket, the war against inflation is won...
The Interest Expense on US Public Debt rose to $883 billion over the past year, another record high
If it continues to increase at the current pace it will soon be the largest line item in the Federal budget, surpassing Social Security. Source: Charlie Bilello
US inflation is cooling, but only slowly
From the perspective of the Fed, the figures are probably not worrying enough to trigger another interest rate hike. However, they are not good enough to sound the all-clear either, CBK says. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The United States is on an unsustainable fiscal path warns the IMF which projects the U.S. deficit to be 'elevated and persistent
Source: barchart, CBO
