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13 Oct 2023

Another $40 billion in US debt today

US national debt has jumped by $550 billion in the past 3 weeks. This is WAY above the pace of $2 trillion per year expected by the government. The US was at $31.4 trillion just 4 months ago. Debt has increased by $2.1 trillion in the past 4 months. Source: WallStreetSilver

12 Oct 2023

What to expect from today's US CPI data? Main take via JPM's market intelligence team

Source: JPM, TME

12 Oct 2023

The consumer is borrowing more than they can afford to pay

The consumer default rate on credit card loans from small lenders has seen a sharp spike to 7.51% This level is higher than the: - Dot Com bubble - Financial Crisis - C-19 With credit card interest rates still above 20%. Consumers are going to continue feeling the pressure. Source: Game of Trades

12 Oct 2023

Bank credit has now entered contraction territory. After witnessing one of sharpest declines on record

Since 1974, this has only happened ONCE: → The Financial Crisis. Back then, this metric reached levels as low as -5%. At the current rate, the risk of a credit event is on the rise. Source: Game of trades

12 Oct 2023

Prices paid to US producers rose by more than forecast in September

The PPI for final demand advanced 0.5% from a month earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The cost of gasoline increased 5.4% The biggest driver of today's PPI beat: a near record surge in PPI Deposit Services. In other words high rates (and inflation) lead to higher rates (and inflation) Source: www.zerohedge.com

11 Oct 2023

German inflation in September fell to its lowest rate since outbreak of war in Ukraine, confirming prior estimates

CPI slowed to 4.5% in September YoY from 6.1% in August. Headline CPI is now lower than Core CPI BUT food prices are already on the rise again. Compared to previous month, food has become 0.4% more expensive. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

11 Oct 2023

US 10-year Yield pullback from last week peak

US 10-year Yield pullback sharply from last week peak. After the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, the US 10-year Govt Yield came close to hitting 4.9%. As of today, that Yield is down below 4.6%.

11 Oct 2023

Average interest rate on a US 30-year mortgage rises to 7.95%, its highest since July 2000

Mortgage demand also just fell to its lowest level since 1995. 8% mortgages are the new normal. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

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