Prices paid to US producers rose by more than forecast in September
The PPI for final demand advanced 0.5% from a month earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The cost of gasoline increased 5.4% The biggest driver of today's PPI beat: a near record surge in PPI Deposit Services. In other words high rates (and inflation) lead to higher rates (and inflation) Source: www.zerohedge.com
German inflation in September fell to its lowest rate since outbreak of war in Ukraine, confirming prior estimates
CPI slowed to 4.5% in September YoY from 6.1% in August. Headline CPI is now lower than Core CPI BUT food prices are already on the rise again. Compared to previous month, food has become 0.4% more expensive. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Average interest rate on a US 30-year mortgage rises to 7.95%, its highest since July 2000
Mortgage demand also just fell to its lowest level since 1995. 8% mortgages are the new normal. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The global EPS cycle continues to improve, with nominal GDP growth continuing to support the cycle
Source: SocGen, TME
In the last 8 decades, savings as a percentage of national income has ONLY contracted three times:
2008 - Great Recession. 2020 - Covid Pandemic Crash. 2023 - The Everything Bubble. Source: Whalewire
BREAKING: Average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage rises to 7.93%, its highest since July 2000
Since January 2021, less than 3 years ago, interest rates have gone from 2.65% to 7.93%. This means that homebuyers just 3 years ago would see their interest rate TRIPLE if they decided to move. This is exactly why existing home sales are at their lowest since 2010. The average new home is about to cost LESS than the average existing home for the first time since 2005. You know something is wrong when old costs more than new. Why sell if your mortgage rate triples? From The Kobeissi Letter
Looking at the September US payroll numbers through another lens
Unadjusted total payrolls rose by 585K and yet private payrolls dropped by 399K. All of the unadjusted jobs in September came from the government, which added a whopping 984K jobs (mostly teachers). What if all the mess in Washington (shutdowns, political gridlock in Congress, etc.) and rising cost of debt put a cap on the fiscal support? Where are the jobs going to come from? Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
Robin Brooks tweet: "In the first 8 months of 2023, German exports to Kyrgyzstan were up 1400% from the same period in 2019
A lot of these goods - mostly cars and car parts - never ends up in Kyrgyzstan, but go directly or indirectly to Russia"
