Today’s inflation numbers are seen as a relief by investors… and the FED
Indeed, the just released data shows that US inflation cooled down in April for the first time in 6 months, following several reports of upside surprises. While yoy headline inflation is in-line with expectations (+3.4pct) the positive surprise came from the MoM number (+0.3pct) which is BELOW estimates (+0.4pct). Core inflation number MoM came in as expected (+0.3pct). The core yoy number (+3.6pct as expected) is at the lowest level since April 2021. Bottom-line: this report is bullish equities, bonds, gold and cryptos as it indicated that the disinflation trend might have further to go. Still, we believe that the Fed might wait for some confirmation before turning dovish. We note that the SuperCore (core ex-shelter) rose 0.5pct MoM to 5.05pct YoY. Source: CNBC
“We have to let restrictive policy do its work on inflation.”
Fed Chair Jay Powell Source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg
Non major macro weeks have been better...
Source: BofA
BREAKING: April PPI inflation RISES to 2.2%, in-line with expectations of 2.2%
Core PPI inflation was 2.4%, in-line with expectations of 2.4%. PPI inflation is now up for 3 straight months for the first time since April 2022. This is the highest PPI reading since April 2023. Note that revisions from last month’s PPI left people feeling it wasn’t as “hot” as initially thought on headline numbers. Source: Charlie Bilello
Recession and stagflation don't happen often in the grand scheme of things... 90% of the time we avoid them...
Source: BofA
Ahead of US CPI, it's important to note that the data point tends to weigh heavily on bond yields -- up or down.
Source: Bloomberg, Markets & Mayhem
Markets are currently anticipating the first Fed cut in September and a potential second cut in December.
This week's US inflation data could shift these expectations backward or forward depending on how the data comes in. Source: Markets & Mayhem
In 1971 the US came off the gold standard
Source: Game of Trades, Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟
