Up the mountain and back down in the valley
Here's a look at the year-over-year percentage change of PPI (producer prices) ex food & energy over the last five years. Core PPI is back down to 2% for the first time since January 2021 after topping out at 9.7% in March 2022. Source: Bespoke
Monetary policy is now easing globally - and will ease much more in 2024/25 - at a time when fiscal deficits are far above the global financial crisis levels
Source: BofA
The share of workers voluntarily quitting their jobs is down to 2.3%
This is the lowest since January 2023 and down from 3.1% prior to the Fed started rate hikes. Weaker labor demand will be the theme of 2024 as job growth slows and rates stay higher for longer. Furthermore, as excess savings have now been depleted, consumers are more reliant on holding a job. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
A slightly disappointing US CPI inflation numbers for the markets...
US YoY CPI eased to 3.1% in November from 3.2% while the important core reading was unchanged at 4% YoY, despite seeing the MoM tick a bit higher. The so-called super-core, a measure watched by the Fed, meanwhile rose at one of the fastest monthly paces this year.
US population growth has fallen off a cliff. Nearing 0% levels indicating almost NO growth. Current levels have NOT been seen in 100+ years
Source: Game of Trades
China is the only country experiencing deflation
CPI is down 4.7% since 2020 while every other country has experience inflation – some experiencing the highest in decades. Source: Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA, Bloomberg, Macrobond
Russia replaced oil exports to the EU with exports to India and China
Source: FT
The number of Americans with a second job is again at all-time highs
Source: Fred, Win Smart
