Nasdaq has now been 'overbought' for 60 days
Its longest period since the run-up to the bursting of the dot-com bubble...
US Treasuries sold off yesterday and are now on the verge of a breakdown from support
The chart below courtesy of Crescat Capital / Tavi Costa is a reminder of the divergence between rising yields and the highly valued Nasdaq index. Is this divergence sustainable? Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa
Nasdaq is still lagging the average bear market recovery performance, per Bloomberg.
Source: Cheddar Flow
Heat map of the NASDAQ 100's $QQQ performance so far in 2023
Source: Evan, Bloomberg
The Nasdaq-100's rebalancing in one chart from Goldman
On July 24, the weight of the largest 7 stocks in the index will be reduced from 56% to 44%. Apple and Microsoft will remain the largest constituents but their index weights will be reduced to 12% and 10%, respectively. Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia come next. Broadcom’s index weight will increase the most (by 60 basis points to 3%). It is estimated that roughly $260 billion in mutual funds and ETFs AUM are benchmarked to the Nasdaq 100 $NDX while hedge funds have an estimated $20 billion of net short exposure. Source: David Kostin thru Oktay Kavrak, CFA
NASDAQ is trading in the upper part of the steep trend channel
NASDAQ is trading in the upper part of the steep trend channel. Note the shooting star candle today, a classical candle that should be observed closely post strong short term trends. One candle doesn't make a "case", but watch for a possible confirmation session. Source: TME, Refinitiv
The NASDAQ (in yellow) has been massively decoupling from the FED balance sheet (in purple)
Source: The Market Ear, Refinitiv
Nasdaq vs Yield Curve
Source: AmplifyME/ Anthony Cheung
