Syz the moment

This week, Deutsche Bank’s head of cross-asset strategy, Maximilian Uleer, introduced a “pressure index” designed to act as a proxy for potential shifts in rhetoric or strategy from the US administration. The index incorporates several indicators, including the one-month change in Trump’s approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations, movements in the S&P 500, and US Treasury yields. Source: FT

James Seyffart @JSeyff

SPX vs VXTLT (inverted) needs little commenting. Source: TME

Asset managers have aggressively increased their VIX futures shorts to the highest level since July 2024. In other words, funds are betting heavily on continued low stock market volatility. Such extreme short VIX positioning often leaves markets vulnerable to sharp volatility spikes if sentiment turns. A similar setup occurred in July-August 2024, when a sudden shift in risk appetite drove a nearly -10% market drop. Are we heading for a pullback? Source. Global Markets Investors

Source: Equity clock, The Market Ear

We’ve seen a massive reset in bond volatility since the Liberation Day chaos. US Treasuries yields have gone nowhere, but at these levels owning some bond volatility offers limited downside with asymmetric upside. Source: The Market Ear, LSEG

Is volatility "too low"? In each of the last 8 times this happened, $SPX was higher a month later. Source: Subu Trade

Gold is the "everything hedge", but if you are looking for global equity hedges, then VIX looks relatively more interesting compared to chasing gold here. Source: TME, LSEG