JPMorgan analysts believe Bitcoin ($BTC) is trading below its fair value as its price volatility falls to historic lows, narrowing the asset's risk-adjusted gap with gold.
Volatility in Bitcoin has slid from nearly 60% earlier this year to roughly 30%, the lowest level on record. Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said this dynamic implies a fair value near $126,000, a target they expect could be reached by year-end, according to The Block. A major driver of the decline in volatility has been corporate treasuries, which now hold over 6% of Bitcoin's total supply. JPMorgan compared the phenomenon to the post-2008 bond market, where central bank quantitative easing dampened swings by locking assets into balance sheets. Source: Yahoo Finance, Coindesk
The 69% decline in the $VIX over the last 20 weeks is the biggest volatility crash in history.
Source: Charlie Bilello
Isn't this the time of year when volatility typically picks up?
Source: Lance Roberts
U.S. Treasury volatility falls to its lowest level since January 2022
No Fear left in the market! Source: Barchart
After getting off course in Q1, $SPX has been trending well with the Cycle Composite since.
Will we see a pick up in volatility in the week ahead, in-line with historical cycle? Source: NDR thru Seth Golden
$VIX seasonality last 20 years.
If we are to see a spike, should be any day now. Just simply basing off seasonality. Source: Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives
Treasury Rate Volatility $MOVE falls to lowest level since January 2022
Source: Barchart
The lowest close since February 2020 for the VIX index
Source: Charlie Bilello
