Without tech spending, the US would have been close to, or in, a recession earlier this year:
DB's Saravelos. "Perhaps Nvidia, which employed only 36,000 people at the last update earlier this year, holds the keys to all global macro in 2026:" Source: DB, Lisa Abramowicz
Bitcoin $BTC has had 2 of its 3 biggest liquidation events of 2025 in the last 4 days.
$2.75B in long liquidation leverage has been wiped. Source: Joe Consorti
BlackRock registered the name iShares Bitcoin Premium ETF, filing coming soon.
This is a covered call bitcoin strategy in order to give btc some yield. This will be a '33 Act spot product, sequel to the $87b $IBIT. Source: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg
President Trump rolled out a new round of tariffs:
•25% on all heavy trucks •30% on upholstered furniture •50% on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related products •100% on branded or patented pharmaceuticals unless the company is building its manufacturing plant in the US Source: StockMarket.news
AI is carrying the market:
Since ChatGPT’s launch in Nov 2022, AI-related stocks have delivered 181% gains in key names, while the rest of the S&P 500 has managed just 25%. More importantly, AI has powered 75% of total index returns, nearly 80% of earnings growth, and an incredible 90% of all capex growth. Without AI, the S&P’s rally would look far more modest. Source: StockMarket.news, JPAM
A "too much growth" scare on Wall Street?
Interesting to see that yesterday's pullback was NOT prompted by bad US macro data: on the contrary, Thursday's economic number beat expectations across the board: 👉 Initial jobless claims unexpectedly tumbled to YTD lows, proving that the Texas-driven spike 2 weeks ago was indeed a one-time event... 👉 Durables goods ex-transports rose for a 5th straight month.... 👉 US Q2 GDP was unexpectedly revised sharply higher, printing at a whopping 3.8%, above all estimates, and the highest in 2 years driven by a bizarre surge in consumption - see chart below 👉US home sales were also well above expectations. In other words 4 for 4 on the data front. So much for those stagflation concerns... ‼️ But good (macro) news become bad news for the markets as the market quickly priced out odds of 2 rate cuts by December, closing the day at 1.56 rate cuts expected, down from 1.7 at the start of the day. It also pushed the 10 year yield and the greenback higher... At the time when equity valuations are extended, a rise in bond yields could indeed trigger some profit taking on US stocks Source chart: zerohedge
The German auto industry is expected to eliminate nearly 100,000 jobs by 2030.
Carmakers and their suppliers are struggling w/waning demand, high labor & energy costs & intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers. Overall, Germany’s auto sector has lost roughly 55,000 jobs over the past 2yrs. Tens of thousands of additional positions are set to disappear by 2030, in an industry that employs more than 700,000 people. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Since 2019 the S&P 500 is up 125%.
76% of that is coming from earnings growth and 19% from dividends. As mentioned by Ryan Detrick, this isn't a bubble, this rally is justified from strong earnings growth. Source: Carson
