The SP500 is outperforming the world's biggest hedgefunds in 2025 YTD
Source: Brew Markets
Breaking news:
The lawsuit against right wing influencer Candace Owens is a rare case of a serving world leader personally suing an online influencer over their content. https://on.ft.com/4m2wk2C
US housing affordability has NEVER been worse:
House prices have outpaced median income growth over the last 40 years. Median house price is now 5.3 TIMES larger than the annual median US income. By comparison, in the 1980s, the difference was 3.6x. Source: Global Markets Investor, Statista
Anthony Pompliano:
"Technologists make prices go down, while the government makes prices go up".
Goldman:
"Market participants seem to agree that the risk to Fed independence is rising, as 5-year 5-year forward inflation swaps have recently decoupled higher from their prior close relationship with the 2-year note yield." Source: Nick Timiraos
U.S. Dollar Index $DXY on track to get a Death Cross ☠️ on the weekly chart for the first time since January 2021
🚨 The last 2 weekly Death Crosses marked the bottom 📈 Source: Barchart
This is how many investors currently feel... but we disagree.
There are "reasons" behind the current bull market. First, liquidity conditions remain favorable with Global M2 (a global liquidity proxy) going up. Second, earnings remain a tailwind with positive earnings revision and 2026 earnings growth reaccelerating. Third, the global macro & geopolitical context is more favorable than in H1 with some clarity on tariffs expected to improve in the coming months and lower taxes ahead. Of course, there are many risks to be taken into consideration but the probability of occurrence is probably exaggerated (e.g. ousting of Fed chairman Powell seems unlikely). But yes indeed, with this level of valuations, any unexpected event could trigger a very decent correction. So stay invested but keep some dry powder to buy the next dip Source picture. Brew markets
Japan’s 10y bond yields have jumped to their highest level since 2008, driven by growing fiscal concerns.
The spike came after President Trump announced a trade deal w/Japan. It appears Japan may be covering part of the cost of US car tariffs by using its own investment funds–essentially a partial bailout to smooth the deal. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
