Big if true...
Source: Alessio @AlessioTMAD, Bloomberg
After getting off course in Q1, $SPX has been trending well with the Cycle Composite since.
Will we see a pick up in volatility in the week ahead, in-line with historical cycle? Source: NDR thru Seth Golden
Bitcoin just broke $120K & flirting with all time highs
Source: Tradingview
Most Ukrainians now back negotiated peace
Support for “fighting until victory” has fallen from over 70% in 2022 to just 24% in 2025 (and who can blame them?). Meanwhile, 69% now want Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible. A dramatic shift in public sentiment over three years. Source: Gallup thru Mario Nawfal on X
‼️ Why is Switzerland the most impacted by the new tariffs on gold imports?
🔴 The United States has recently imposed tariffs on gold imports, specifically targeting one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, which are common forms for delivery in US futures markets. This policy shift was formalized in a July 31, 2025, US Customs and Border Protection ruling, reclassifying these gold bars under a customs code that is subject to tariffs—contrary to previous exemptions. ▶️The new tariff rate is as high as 39% on affected gold bar imports from certain countries, with hashtag#Switzerland—a major refining hub for London's larger 400-ounce gold bars—expected to be the most impacted. ▶️Traditionally, large gold bars (400-ounce format) are traded in hashtag#London, then shipped via Switzerland for recasting into the smaller kilo bars favored in the US, making the tariff particularly disruptive to established supply chains. ▶️The policy does not make clear whether London-origin 400-ounce bars, if sent directly, are currently subject to tariffs, but most industry analysis suggests that one-kilogram and 100-ounce bars, regardless of their original source, are now covered by the US tariff regime if imported into the United States. ⚠️ In summary, there are now substantial tariffs on gold bars (especially kilo and 100-ounce bars) imported into the US, even if they transit through London or Switzerland. The rule does not differentiate between bars exported directly from London or those refined elsewhere, as it is based on the classification of the bar itself at import
U.S. Corporate Margins are making all-time highs while Europe's are flat
The end of American Exceptionalism??? Source: Barchart, Blackrock
India has overtaken China as the top smartphone supplier to the US, shipping 44% in the second quarter of 2025 - up from 13% a year earlier.
Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty of Trump's tariffs pushed giants like Apple and Samsung to shift production. Source: @timesofindia
The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%, the lowest since March 2023, as it balances persistent inflation with mounting concerns over economic growth and the labor market.
BOE’s is front-running a deeper economic slowdown. They’re not cutting because things are good BUT they’re cutting because the cracks are showing. BOE cut = policy makers globally may follow ⚠️ BoE vote was recast after split! It probably NEVER happened. Taylor voted originally to cut 50 and then went 25. But it was finely balanced - but it shows that this was a HAWKISH 25bps cut. This most likely rules out a September cut unless substantial miss in jobs/CPI in Aug $GBP Source: Viraj Patel 2VPatelFX, Ananta @AnantaSumantera
