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US government shutdowns can last weeks...
The longer the shutdown, the higher the impact on GDP Source: Bloomberg
Jeff Weniger went through all the cycles back to 1974.
In the 12 months after the first rate cut, Consumer Discretionary went on to beat the market in 75% of the observations. Poor performers included Energy and Utilities, which beat the market in only 17% and 25% of the 12-month windows, respectively. Source: Jeff Weniger
Lot of talk how valuations are 'high'.
Here's another reminder there is virtually no correlation between P/E multiples and what the S&P 500 does the next year (R-squared of -0.01). Source: Ryan Detrick, Carson
What’s fluffy, has big ears, and has seen its stock outpace the likes of Nvidia, Palantir, and Microsoft?
It’s Build-A-Bear Workshop, of course. The almost 28-year-old mall staple where one can stuff, name, dress, and accessorize a cuddly toy has seen its stock price soar more than 2,000% over the last five years, as reported by the Washington Post on Monday, outperforming some of the hottest names in AI and technology. Indeed, a theoretical $100 invested into BBW stock at the start of 2021 would be worth ~$1,600 today — about $200 more than the theoretical value of the same amount of Nvidia stock. Since its sales plunged in 2020, Build-A-Bear has only gone from strength to strength. The company reported its best Q1 results ever in May, with revenue rising 11% to $128.4 million, having emerged as a post-pandemic winner after tapping into a lucrative market: grown adults. Source: Chartr
Without tech spending, the US would have been close to, or in, a recession earlier this year:
DB's Saravelos. "Perhaps Nvidia, which employed only 36,000 people at the last update earlier this year, holds the keys to all global macro in 2026:" Source: DB, Lisa Abramowicz
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