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29 Sep 2025

US government shutdowns can last weeks...

The longer the shutdown, the higher the impact on GDP Source: Bloomberg

26 Sep 2025

Gold and Digital Gold aka bitcoin are diverging.

Does it signal troubles ahead for cryptos? Note this is not the first time it happens, including in 2025 Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

26 Sep 2025

Jeff Weniger went through all the cycles back to 1974.

In the 12 months after the first rate cut, Consumer Discretionary went on to beat the market in 75% of the observations. Poor performers included Energy and Utilities, which beat the market in only 17% and 25% of the 12-month windows, respectively. Source: Jeff Weniger

26 Sep 2025

Lot of talk how valuations are 'high'.

Here's another reminder there is virtually no correlation between P/E multiples and what the S&P 500 does the next year (R-squared of -0.01). Source: Ryan Detrick, Carson

26 Sep 2025

What’s fluffy, has big ears, and has seen its stock outpace the likes of Nvidia, Palantir, and Microsoft?

It’s Build-A-Bear Workshop, of course. The almost 28-year-old mall staple where one can stuff, name, dress, and accessorize a cuddly toy has seen its stock price soar more than 2,000% over the last five years, as reported by the Washington Post on Monday, outperforming some of the hottest names in AI and technology. Indeed, a theoretical $100 invested into BBW stock at the start of 2021 would be worth ~$1,600 today — about $200 more than the theoretical value of the same amount of Nvidia stock. Since its sales plunged in 2020, Build-A-Bear has only gone from strength to strength. The company reported its best Q1 results ever in May, with revenue rising 11% to $128.4 million, having emerged as a post-pandemic winner after tapping into a lucrative market: grown adults. Source: Chartr

26 Sep 2025

Without tech spending, the US would have been close to, or in, a recession earlier this year:

DB's Saravelos. "Perhaps Nvidia, which employed only 36,000 people at the last update earlier this year, holds the keys to all global macro in 2026:" Source: DB, Lisa Abramowicz

26 Sep 2025

Bitcoin $BTC has had 2 of its 3 biggest liquidation events of 2025 in the last 4 days.

$2.75B in long liquidation leverage has been wiped. Source: Joe Consorti

26 Sep 2025

BlackRock registered the name iShares Bitcoin Premium ETF, filing coming soon.

This is a covered call bitcoin strategy in order to give btc some yield. This will be a '33 Act spot product, sequel to the $87b $IBIT. Source: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg

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