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The odds of a Fed rate cut by September have fallen to just 60%. A few weeks ago, the odds were 94%
Source: Barchart
Our Global M2 proxy continues to point to supportive liquidity dynamics for risk assets in the weeks ahead, even if the charts suggest a potential pause in the upward trend for the short-run.
➡️ Liquidity continues to be injected, not only in the US (with M2 reaching a new all-time high in May), but also in Europe and China, and the USD weakness is supportive of global liquidity conditions. ➡️ The link between our Global M2 proxy and the Bitcoin, but also the S&P500 and the MSCI World, continues to hold quite well! This is NOT an investment recommendation. Many factors influence the price of assets. Do your own research. Source: Adrien Pichoud
German long-term bond yields keep rising.
The yield on 30y Bunds has reached 3.23% — nearing its highest level in 14 years. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
BofA private clients: 64% stocks, highest since March 2022
10.7% cash, lowest since October 2021 (Hartnett) Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
Investors are now buying stocks on margin at levels never seen before in history
Source: Barchart
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