A correlation breakdown:
Private equity stocks (Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle) dropped 14.5% in just 3 weeks, while at the same time the S&P 500 just hit another high. What does it mean? Source: Jeff Weniger, Refinitiv
In August '25, German industrial production collapsed 4.3% m/m.
Germany is headed for the third consecutive recession year. To Dr Polleit, the "Great Reset" is destroying industrual production and economic growth in Germany. ➡️ Polleit is a German economist affiliated with the Austrian School of economics, and president of the Ludwig von Mises Institut Deutschland. Mises Institute. He is strongly skeptical of state intervention, central banking, fiat money, and what he sees as coercive economic planning ➡️Polleit general critiques on Germany are the following: 👉 Heavy regulation, strong state involvement 👉Germany’s ambitious transition from fossil fuels to renewables may cause disruptions in energy supply, cost volatility, grid stresses, and increase production costs 👉Export dependence and global competition 👉Monetary and fiscal pressures reduce real returns on capital and discourage long-term investment. 👉Uncertainty and investment risk 👉With more government programs, state investment, subsidies, and oversight, private actors may be crowded out or discouraged. Polleit would claim that entrepreneurship and innovation decline. 👉Central planning or incentive distortions lead to misallocation of capital. Polleit warns that “green subsidies” or mandated transitions may favor politically connected actors rather than the most efficient ones. 🚨 Hence, under Polleit’s logic, Germany — already having high regulation, energy transition burdens, export dependency, and significant state involvement — would be particularly vulnerable to further growth suppression from Great Reset-type policies. He would argue that growth is slowly being “destroyed” by compounding layers of regulatory, monetary, and fiscal drag. Source: Thorsten Polleit @ThorstenPolleit on X
Gold vs stocks
Source: Bloomberg, Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )
The Ratio of the Defensive Consumer Staples ETF to the S&P 500 has moved down to the lowest level since the dot-com bubble peak in March 2000.
$XLP $SPY Source: Charlie Bilello
Bitcoin will become a “pillar of financial security,” like gold, and be included in international monetary institutions' official reserves by 2030, per Deutsche Bank.
Source: Bitcoin news
NVIDIA now has a greater market cap than the entire German stock market and the entire Italian stock market…
Combined. Source: Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk
The famous circular AI economy diagram
Source: Bloomberg
If the S&P 500 gains another 5% from here until December 31, it will exceed every single Wall Street price target for the 3rd consecutive year.
$SPX Source: Charlie Bilello
