The Bank of Japan had to intervene twice this week to slow gains in govt bond yields, underscoring its determination to curb sharp moves in rates.
Nevertheless, the 10y Japanese yield has skyrocketed to 0.65%, well above the 0.5% from the YCC. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Junk bonds are outperforming as soft landing narrative builds
High-yield has returned 6.50% this year vs 3.70% for high-grade.
Junk bonds are emerging as a sweet spot in global fixed-income markets wracked by some of the worst volatility this year, as investors increasingly bet that major economies will avoid recession for now.
Source: Bloomberg
As highlighted by Tavi Costa, the implied demand for oil just surged to all-time highs
It was the largest weekly increase in 26 years. Meanwhile, US oil production remains ~7% below pre-pandemic levels with total operating rigs starting to contract for the first time in 3 years. Source: Bloomberg, Crescat Capital
A mixed message from the July US jobs report: the US economy added 187k jobs according to Establishment survey, a tiny bit below Street’s +200k forecast
According to the Household survey, the number of employed people rose by 268k. Because of this 268k number, unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, down from 3.6% in June and below estimated 3.6%. Wages ran hot, coming in at +4.4% YoY (vs Street +4.2% and vs +4.4% in June). Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Nasdaq has now been 'overbought' for 60 days
Its longest period since the run-up to the bursting of the dot-com bubble...
Who is the most active congressional trader?
Well, the answer lies with Josh Gottheimer, a Member of the U.S. House of Representatives in New Jersey's 5th congressional district. 📈His trade volume is significantly higher than the next most active trader💰！ Source: Genuine Impact
The slow-motion US banking crisis is still not out of the woods...
Indeed, US Money Market funds saw a third straight week of inflows ($29 billion this past week) to a new record high of $5.15 trillion...Retail money-market funds saw inflows for the 15th straight week (and institutional funds also saw a second straight week of inflows)... Usage of The Fed's emergency bank bailout facility rose by $606 million to a new record high at $106 billion... And as highlighted on the chart below, the decoupling between money-market fund inflows and bank deposits continues.. Could the current bloodbath in bonds be the catalyst for another round of pain? Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
Why fees matter, visually:
Source: Brian Feroldi
