Hedge funds have rarely been this underweight North American stocks:
Hedge funds sold North American stocks for 3 consecutive weeks despite 3 consecutive weeks of S&P 500 all-time highs. This has pushed their allocation to North American equities down to the lowest on record relative to the MSCI All World Index, according to Goldman Sachs. At the same time, their allocation to Emerging Markets is up to an all-time high. What is happening here? Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs
TRILLION DOLLAR BABY...
OpenAI's pre-IPO valuation has officially hit a record $1 trillion. Pre-IPO instruments trading onchain, backed 1:1 by SPV exposure on Jupiter, are providing a real-time proxy for the company’s implied IPO valuation. OpenAI’s implied valuation is now up +163% since October 2025. This comes as Anthropic is also nearing a potential $1+ trillion IPO and SpaceX is reportedly targeting $1.7+ trillion. The world has never had this many trillion-dollar private companies... Source: The Kobeissi Letter
LPs are rotating.
Infrastructure and liquidity solutions (secondaries, opportunistic) are in. Software, buyouts and direct lending are out. Source: Illiquid Insights
Anthropic is receiving investment offers at an $800B valuation according to Business Insider.
This means Anthropic and OpenAI might be at near equal valuations now. Crazy how fast Anthropic has scaled enterprise versus OpenAI. $SKM should fly on this. $800B is over 2x where they last raised, which was at a $380B valuation. Source: Bloomberg, Negligible Capital
From the FT: OpenAI investors question $852bn valuation as strategy shifts
OpenAI’s $852bn valuation is facing scrutiny as it shifts strategy toward enterprise AI, competing with Anthropic while maintaining ChatGPT’s consumer lead. Some investors worry the company is unfocused and vulnerable, especially as Anthropic’s rapid revenue growth challenges its position. The Claude-maker’s annualised revenue surged from $9bn at the end of 2025 to $30bn at the end of March, driven by demand for its coding tools. Anthropic’s business appears to have leapfrogged OpenAI, which hit $25bn in annualised revenue in February, though the companies use different accounting methods to book revenue, making direct comparison difficult. Despite raising $122bn and strong leadership confidence, OpenAI is cutting side projects and prioritizing higher-margin tools like Codex. It is also expanding infrastructure and workforce. However, strategic pivots, abandoned initiatives, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google raise concerns about execution and long-term valuation ahead of a potential IPO.
Is this a warning sign of a private credit crisis, or just market panic?
Blue Owl Capital, often considered a poster child for the private credit boom, closed at a record low as worries grow about the health of the $1.8tn market. The stock fell 1.4% to $8.45, slipping below its previous low from late 2022. It is now down 68% from its all-time high. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Private Credit’s Hidden Software Risk
Top private credit funds Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, and Blue Owl understate software exposure, averaging 25% vs. 19% reported. Blackstone leads at 33%, Blue Owl nearly doubles its reported share. Rising AI fears make this sector a key driver of record fund withdrawals, highlighting larger-than-expected risks. Source: Will Schryver, The Wall Street Journal, Global Markets Investor
US private credit is diverging from public markets at an alarming pace
This comes as the private credit market faces growing investor scrutiny over valuations, underwriting standards, and rising redemption requests from clients. There is also increasing concern that AI will disrupt the software companies that make up a large portion of private credit portfolios. Historically, the private credit proxy index has had a 94% correlation with high yield credit spreads. If the correlation reasserts, we could see a spike in high yield credit spreads, which could eventually spread into stocks and trigger a bear market. Credit markets tend to lead equities, and right now, they are flashing a clear warning. Source: Bloomberg, Global Markets Investor, Macrobond
