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16 Jan 2024

Did you know that Brazil has been leading Latin America in solar panel purchases? 🤔

Source: Markets & Mayhem

21 Dec 2023

Tavi Costa -> Brazilian equity markets have experienced near-record foreign investments in the last month

Despite all the skepticism about $EWZ is outperforming the S&P 500 by 23 percentage points in the last 2 years. The aggregate market cap of Brazilian stocks relative to its overall money supply remains near historical lows. Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg

4 Oct 2023

A tweet by Robin Brooks: "Brazil's trade surplus remains in the stratosphere

There is no other EM that has transformed itself over the past decade in the way that Brazil has. The sharp rise in US interest rates is currently weighing on Real, but that's temporary. The massive trade surplus is permanent..."

8 Aug 2023

Brazil central bank says faster key rate cuts are Unlikely

“The Committee judges that there is low probability of an additional intensification in the pace of adjustment,” central bankers wrote in the minutes of their Aug. 1-2 meeting published on Tuesday.

Source: Brazil Central Bank, Bloomberg

7 Aug 2023

Tavi Costa: "Brazilian equities have been attracting unprecedented levels of foreign capital investments, marking a fundamental shift since the global financial crisis

Net inflows from international investors over the past 50 days have reached historically elevated levels, maintaining a consistent upward trajectory over the last two years". Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg

3 Aug 2023

Banco Central do Brazil Surprises with a Larger-than-Expected Rate Cut!

Following the surprising rate cut by 100bps from Chile's Central Bank earlier this week, Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) has also made an unexpected move by announcing a rate cut of 50bps, surpassing market expectations of 25bps. The BCB President, Roberto Campos Neto, reduced the Selic to 13.25% yesterday, with a split decision among board members, four of whom voted for a smaller quarter-point cut. In a related statement, policymakers emphasized the improved consumer price outlook and the decline in longer-term inflation expectations. With Brazil's recent rating upgrade and positive progress in inflation, the country appears well-positioned to continue its path of prudent monetary policy decisions. Could we expect similar rate cuts from Peru and Mexico in the region? In any case, just as at the beginning of the tightening cycle, Latin American central banks are once again ahead of their developed counterparts. Source : Bloomberg.  

12 May 2023

⏬ Time to consider a shift for the Central Bank of Brazil?

🇧🇷 Brazil's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is nearing the end of its normalization process, hitting a low of 4.18% in April, the lowest level since October 2020! 📊 The Banco Central do Brasil (Central Bank of Brazil) took proactive steps by raising its key rates (Selic rate) early on to address inflationary pressures. Their actions have yielded positive results, bringing inflation back in line with Brazil's historical patterns. ⚖️ The potential for rate cuts is now significant, particularly if Lula appoints his preferred candidates, like Gabriel Galípolo, to influential positions within the Brazilian central bank. President Campos Neto is widely respected as one of Latin America's top central bankers. However, his focus on controlling inflation rather than stimulating Brazilian growth, coupled with his association with former President Bolsonaro, may put his position at risk. 🛑 Is Brazil on a similar trajectory as Turkey, where concerns arise over the central bank's alignment with the government? Source: Bloomberg


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