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31 Jan 2024

Egypt: The currency is in free-fall

Black market rate: 1 dollar = 70 pounds Official rate: 1 dollar = 30.9 pounds The pounds has weakened by nearly 24% in the market in 2024. Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris criticized delays in enacting a long-awaited devaluation of the pound, suggesting authorities match the spiraling black market rate to end the nation’s chronic foreign-currency shortage. Postponing reforms is “a disaster that will increase the extent of the critical situation we are in,” Sawiris said in an Arabic-language post on social media platform X. Egypt’s pound has plunged on the parallel market to 68-70 per dollar in recent days, leaving it more than 50% weaker than the official rate of about 30.9. Source: Bloomberg, Ziad M Daoud

8 Jan 2024

BofA Harnett: " 'BRICS 10’= 51% of global CO2 emissions, 46% of population, 45% of energy consumption, 45% of oil production, 37% of GDP (at purchasing power parity)…

yet <25% of global market cap, and EM equities also at 52-year low vs. US" Source: BofA, TME

4 Jan 2024

🚨BRICS DOUBLES OVERNIGHT Yesterday, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Iran are officially members of BRICS.

They join Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as a formidable economic powerhouse, representing 29% of global GDP and 43% of global oil production. Although tensions exist between member states such as China and India, BRICS is a growing challenge to the G7. President Xi: “I wish to extend a warm welcome to leaders of new BRICS members.” Source: IMF, Reuters, China Daily, Mario Nawfal

23 Oct 2023

Argentina's currency has lost 96% of its value vs the USD in the past decade

In that period, the central bank has increased the monetary base by 2,046% to finance government political spending... Source: Bloomberg

12 Oct 2023

Emerging market stocks have fallen to their lowest valuation relative to the S&P 500 in AT LEAST 36 years

Source: Barchart, Bloomberg

4 Oct 2023

A tweet by Robin Brooks: "Brazil's trade surplus remains in the stratosphere

There is no other EM that has transformed itself over the past decade in the way that Brazil has. The sharp rise in US interest rates is currently weighing on Real, but that's temporary. The massive trade surplus is permanent..."

25 Aug 2023

The BRICS economic coalition of emerging markets has decided to extend membership invitations to six nations.

The BRICS alliance — which presently reunites Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — is set to invite Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join, Ramaphosa said in a speech published on the X social media platform, previously known as Twitter. The new composition of BRICS will control 80% of world oil production. The same goes for the sharp GDP growth of the new BRICS countries. It will amount to 30% of world GDP and exceed $30 trillion. Source: Sprinter, MoneyRadar

7 Aug 2023

EM returns over past 5-10yrs have been lackluster, w/most EM equities returning low-to-mid single digits

Over longer-term, returns range from extraordinary (India: 1000%) to respectable (Indonesia: 469%) despite volatility & some prolonged periods of choppy trading, BofA has calculated. All EMs have outperformed China's 22% total return. Source: HolgerZ, BofA, Bloomberg

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