Straight from the Desk
Syz the moment
Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.
- All
- us
- Food for Thoughts
- equities
- Bonds
- technical analysis
- sp500
- bitcoin
- Stocks
- inflation
- China
- macro
- Federal Reserve
- ETF
- investing
- Crypto
- performance
- Central banks
- AI
- earnings
- gold
- Rate
- Real Estate
- markets
- debt
- Commodities
- Treasury
- tech
- yield
- nvidia
- europe
- Germany
- Japan
- bank
- fed
- oil
- warren-buffett
- nasdaq
- cpi
- apple
- Forex
- useful
- interest
- humor
- interest-rates
- market cap
- GDP
- quotes
- dollar
- energy
- returns
- hedge fund
- magnificent-7
- geopolitics
- valuations
- asset
- india
- finance
- BOJ
- ECB
- sentiment
- crudeoil
- Swiss
- Volatility
- highyield
- economy
- recession
- vix
- options
- cash
- semiconductor
- growth
- mortgage
- Money Market
- tesla
- Positioning
- charts
- exports
- trading
- bubble
- ipo
- price
- EM
- ESG
- EV
- deficit
- sales
- UK
- assetmanagement
- bearish
- wages
- Flows
- copper
- credit-card
- revenue
- russia
- saudiarabia
- spending
- yen
- Election
- Turkey
- cocoa
- futures
- index
- meta
- profit
- watches
- EUR
- bankruptcy
- chart
- consumers
- supply
- unemployment
- Brazil
- airlines
- amazon
- car
- credit-rating
- cryptocurrencies
- currencies
- manufacturing
- seasonality
- $nycb
- Asia
- FUNDS
- Renewable
- insider
- spx
- FUND
- africa
- deflation
- investmentgrade
- jobs
- microsoft
- productivity
- sec
- sharebuybacks
- spy
- taiwan
- yuan
- Alternatives
- Hong Kong
- SMCI
- SuperBowl
- charlie-munger
- compounding
- concentration
- debt-ceiling
- france
- lvmh
- msci
- pricing-power
- private markets
- smallcaps
- sustainable
- switzerland
- world-economy
- BOE
- Focus
- Industrial-production
- ceo
- chatgpt
- dowjones
- economic surprise
- ethereum
- fixed income
- greed
- halvings
- income
- leadership
- liquidity
- luxury
- moneydebasement
- retirement
- russel2000
- savings
- silver
- tax
- world
- EM Sovereign
- Granolas
- Market Outlook
- Nikkei
- TIPS
- brics
- corporate
- cost-of-living
- demographics
- dividend
- emerging-markets
- fashion
- gas
- greece
- jpmorgan
- lending
- monetarypolicy
- opec
- saudiaramco
- snb
- storytelling
- trump
- unicorn
- valentine's-day
- venture capital
- vietnam
- Beware
- CTAs
- Coinbase
- Convexity
- Crypto corner
- Deindustrialization
- GlobalAgg
- Italy
- Marketing
- Nestle
- Precious-Metals
- Rally
- SoftBank
- ToyotaMotor
- UAE
- bankrupt
- behavior
- booking.com
- calls
- childbirth
- cisco
- climate
- coal
- cobalt
- cocacola
- construction
- counterparty-risk
- cta
- design
- dragonyear
- elon musk
- eurozone
- fees
- financial-stress
- football
- golf
- hedgeye
- hungary
- imf
- intel
- international-women's-day
- job-cuts
- korea
- kpi
- lng
Central banks demand matters a lot more than ETF flows for gold
Source: Bob Elliott, Bloomberg, Macrobond, The Daily Shot
What is a store of value?
A good store of value preserve the amount of goods / services money can buy over time. Example (simplified): - The average gold price in 1920 was $20.68 per ounce. Today it is worth $2,100 per ounce. A 100 fold increase. - The average house price in the US in 1920 was between $5,000 and $6,000. The average sales price of a new home in 2023 was $492,000. A 90 to 100 fold increase.
As highlighted by Tavi Costa:
The recent surge in gold prices, despite a lack of corresponding growth in assets managed by related ETFs, suggests that central banks' purchases have likely been the primary catalyst for the rally. Although there's been a record pace of metal accumulation, central banks currently hold a much smaller proportion of gold compared to historical levels. Back in the late 1970s and early 1980s, these institutions held around 80% of their balance sheet assets in gold, whereas today it's less than 20%. Will they continue to accumulate gold going forward? If we come back to the historical average (in terms of % of reserves), there is massive pent up demand ahead Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
Some interesting quotes by Donald Trump about rates, the dollar, macro and gold thru Ronnie Stoeferle:
- "I am a low interest rate person. If we raise interest rates and if the dollar starts getting too strong, we're going to have some very major problems." - "This is the United States government. First of all, you never have to default because you print the money." - "The Dollar is too strong. Our companies can’t compete with them now because our currency is too strong. And it’s killing us." - "The golden rule of negotiation: He who has the gold makes the rules." - "We used to have a very, very solid country because it was based on a gold standard. We don’t have the gold. Other places have the gold." - "I have been complaining about currency devaluations for a long time. I believe that we will all eventually, and probably sooner than people understand or think, be on a level playing field because that’s the only way its fair."
A "Goldilocks" us job report -> risk assets
Gold and digital gold rally after a soft US Jobs report. February Non-Farm-Payrolls beat estimates with 275k new jobs BUT 2 months revisions look notable with -167k. Unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.7% and hourly earnings weaker than expected w/+0.1% MoM. January’s blow-out release has been relativized. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Investing with intelligence
Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks