Gold and Digital Gold aka bitcoin are diverging.
Does it signal troubles ahead for cryptos? Note this is not the first time it happens, including in 2025 Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Central Banks are buying MASSIVE amounts of gold:
In July, world central banks acquired 48 tonnes of gold, above 2024 figures, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. Year-to-date, central banks have bought an average of 64 tonnes of gold per month. Gold demand is strong. Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs
Gold hits most overbought level on the monthly chart in 45 years.
But beware, an asset can stay overbought during a long period of times in a bull run. And the market isn't speculating; it's rationally repricing the metal for a new era of fiscal dominance, negative real yields, and de-dollarization. Source: Barchart
Gold is on pace for its best year since 1979, up over 42% in 2025.
Source: Charlie Bilello
The gold price is rising again.
It fell back briefly after last week's Fed, as markets digested a more complicated meeting than they had hoped for. But now we're back off to the races and gold is resuming its rise. As rightly put by Robin Brooks, "the world is running out of safe havens. Gold is the winner..." Source: Robin Brooks
S&P 500 priced in gold...this is what the stock market looks like in real money (looks like a big head and shoulders pattern...)
As highlighted by Quoth the Raven on X, "If we go back to 0.5x, that puts gold at $12,000, or the S&P at 1850 or they meet in middle at $9000/4500 which would be gold 2.5x and S&P -30%ish"
The hedge factor
Gold is the "everything hedge", but if you are looking for global equity hedges, then VIX looks relatively more interesting compared to chasing gold here. Source: TME, LSEG
Gold miners are making record profits:
Production margins are at an all-time high as gold prices surge while costs rise much slower. Miners are now earning more per ounce than ever in the past 10 years. Meanwhile, gold miners ETF, $GDX, has skyrocketed 103% year-to-date. Source: Global Markets Investor
