Syz the moment

According to Moody's, Aareal Bank & Deutsche Pfandbriefbank have the largest exposure compared w/their capital levels. The shares of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, which is the most shorted in Germany, have recently lost a quarter of their value. In case of Deutsche Bank, there is a gap between banks' exposure to US specialized lending and exposure to banks' US CRE book as DB engages to a material extent in other asset-based or project lending that would also qualify as specialised lending, according to Moody's. Source: Dekabank, HolgerZ

After the crypto-trading platform swung to a quarterly profit and reported revenue well above Wall Street expectations, saying it benefited from “risk on” activity in the markets. Coinbase $COIN earned $273 million, or $1.04 a share, in the fourth quarter, versus a loss of $557 million, or $2.46 a share, in the year-ago quarter. Sales rose to $954 million from $629 million a year ago. Analysts polled by FactSet expected Coinbase to report earnings of 2 cents a share on sales of $826 million. In a letter to shareholders, Coinbase executives said that they saw “a sharp increase in crypto asset volatility,” akin to early 2023, and in crypto asset prices. That was mostly thanks to around approvals for a bitcoin spot ETF and “broad expectations around improving macroeconomic conditions in 2024, which contributed broadly in the capital markets to ‘risk on’ activity,” it said. COIN Coinbase Q4 FY23: • Trading volume +6% Y/Y to $154B. • Bitcoin 31% of volume (-4pp Y/Y). • Revenue+52% Y/Y to $954M ($135M beat). • EPS $1.04 ($1.03 beat). Q1 FY24 Guidance: • Subscription & Services $410-480M ($373M expected). Source: App Economy Insigths, Market Watch

Two of the world’s biggest asset managers are quitting an investor group set up to prod companies over global warming and a third is scaling back its participation, in a major setback to the ambitions of Climate Action 100+. JPMorgan Asset Management and State Street Global Advisors both confirmed they were leaving Climate Action 100+. BlackRock, the world’s largest money manager, is pulling out as a corporate member and transferring its participation to its smaller international arm. The departures weaken the climate group’s plan to use shareholder influence to step up pressure on polluting companies to decarbonise, because they mean that none of the world’s five largest asset managers are fully behind the effort. https://lnkd.in/eWcb-iPU Source: FT

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold off about 10 million shares or almost $2 billion of Apple stock in the final quarter of 2023, according to the firm's 13-F filing. Berkshire also sold off the majority of its position in HP and about half of its shares of Paramount Global. The firm boosted its positions in Chevron and Occidental Petroleum, as well as Sirius XM Holdings. Berkshire exited large positions in StoneCo and D.R. Horton, as well as two smaller positions in insurance firms Globe Life and Markel. Source: Creative Capital, Reuters

As highlighted by Tavi Costa -> US GDP is nearly 30% higher than pre-pandemic levels, while oil production remains at approximately the same level as it was in early 2020 Source: Bloomberg, Crescat Capital

If so, we may be at the trough before a fairly significant rise into mid-March. Source: Markets & Mayhem

“Bloomberg’s review found 22 banks with $10 billion to $100 billion of assets hold commercial property loans three times greater than their capital. Half of those firms had growth rates surpassing the thresholds laid out by regulators. The tally was even higher among banks with less than $10 billion of assets: 47 had outsize portfolios, of which 13 had swelled rapidly. The analysis excludes loans for nonresidential buildings that are occupied by their owners.” Source: Bloomberg

Source: Compounding Quality