In just 15 trading days, the new Bitcoin ETFs have made the commodities ETF leaderboard.
$IBIT at #7, $FBTC at #9, $ARKB and $BITB at #23 & #24 How long before $IBIT overtakes $SLV and the 2 top gold ETFs $IAU and $GLD ? Source: HODL15Capital
To put things into perspective
Assuming Nvidia meets estimates, the Mag 7 generated $523bn in sales during 4Q, +14%YoY. Revenue growth for remaining 493 S&P 500 stocks was a comparatively paltry 2%. Margins for the mag 7 expanded by ~750 bp YoY to 23% vs. a 110 bp contraction to 9% for remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500, Goldman has calculated. Source: HolgerZ, Goldman Sachs
Unemployment Cycle update after Fridays Non-Farm-Payrolls
Only during the 1948 recession did hashtag#unemployment rise so slowly. If we don't see a pick up soon, this unemployment cycle might turn out not to be a recessionary one. Source: Gero Patterer, CFA
Friday's market action tells a lot about what's currently going on
1) US large-caps equities index recorded strong gains ($SPX +1.07%; $NDX +1.69%) thanks to huge advance by $META (+20%) and $AMZN (+7%); 2) Underneath the surface, there is some selling taking place - the S&P 500 equally weight is DOWN -0.08% on the day. We need to see decent market breath for the equity bull market extend as the mag7 (or rather the "mag 4" as leadership is even more narrow than in 2023) will not be able to carry the market forward for ever... Source: Bloomberg
Chinese stocks
Source: Ayesha Tariq, CFA
Mentions of Job Cuts in Earnings Calls Hits Pandemic Peak
Layoffs are being mentioned on US earnings calls at the HIGHEST rate since the pandemic, according to Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg, Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA
Nice cartoon by hedgeye...
Let see how long Powell will resist not cutting rates... Trump seems to have already decided about his faith anyway...
Zuck (meta) vs. Musk (Tesla)
Remember the cage match story ? 😏 Source: carl Quintanilla
