🔴 BREAKING: US and China agreed to LOWER tariffs on each other for 90 days until further agreement is reached.
▶️ US cuts tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145% (a base 10% plus 20% fentanyl duty) from May 14th. ▶️ China cuts tariffs on American goods to 10% from 125%. ▶️ Reductions DO NOT include sectoral duties imposed on all US trading partners, and the tariffs applied on China during the first Trump administration remain in place. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that neither side wants to decouple. As a reminder, in 2018, both sides also agreed to pause, but the US backed away from that, which led to more than 18 months of further tariffs and talks. It is a short-term relief at least. But just one headline may reverse everything again. Stay tuned. Source: Global Markets Investor
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Isn't it too much?
US-China Trade (temporary) deal summarized
(see below table by Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA. 👉 As highlighted by a CNBC article >>> The new U.S.-China deal to temporarily cut tariffs is better than expected, providing near-term relief for investors. Under the deal, so-called reciprocal tariffs will drop from over 100% to 10% on both sides. The Trump administration will keep 20% fentanyl-related tariffs on China in place, meaning America’s total duties on Chinese imports will stand at 30% while the 90-day pause is effective. 👉 In a note to clients on Monday, Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia Pacific at JPMorgan Asset Management, said the deal unveiled in Geneva was better than anticipated, but uncertainty remained. “The magnitude of this tariff reduction is larger than expected,” he said, although he noted that it would be difficult for Beijing and Washington to reach a more concrete trade arrangement in just three months. “The 90-day period may not be sufficient for the two sides to reach a detailed agreement, but it keeps the pressure on the negotiation process,” Hui said. “We are still waiting for further details on other terms of this agreement, for example, whether China would relax on rare earth export restrictions.” Source: CNBC
The number of Fed rate cuts continue to be revised downwards:
* June 18 (red) now 8% (92% no move) * July 30 (green) now 35% (65% no move) No cut is priced until September 17. And even that cut (blue) is disappearing. It was more than 100% ~10 days ago and is now 66% (34% no move) and continuing to fall. Source: Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
It is important to be able to say "NO".
The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything" - Warren Buffet
As expected, BoE cut rates by 25bps! (5-4 vote).
It came as Donald Trump hinted a UK-US trade pact was imminent. Some MIXED SIGNALS - Two members (Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor) preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 4%. Two members (Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill) preferred to leave Bank Rate unchanged, at 4.5%.
Fed leaves rates unchanged, as expected
“The committee … judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.” Powell is facing the worst outcome for a Fed President... The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to promote two main economic goals: maximum employment and price stability... and uncertainty is on both sides How will President Trump react to this? ECB is cutting rates. PBOC as well as they see a disinflationary shock coming. Meanwhile, the Fed stays put. He is not going to like this...
