Odds of rate cuts beginning as soon as January 2024 are rising quickly
There is now a ~15% chance of rate cuts beginning next month. The base case shows a ~56% chance of rate cuts beginning in March 2024. Markets are currently expecting a total of FIVE 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024. Still, the Fed has yet to discuss the possibility of any rate cuts at all. Markets are fully bought in to the "Fed pivot." We believe that the economy will continue to slow down and that rate cuts will take place next year. However, a lot pof these cuts are already priced in. This could generate some volatility for bonds and stocks in case of disappoinment (aka macro data surprising on the upside). Source: The Kobeissi Letter
INDIA IN THE TOP 5!
India's stock market hit a milestone this week. It's now a $4 trillion market. Here's how that looks alongside the world's biggest. Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
Liquidity continue to matters for stocks
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
“Mr. 4MM” buys Bitcoin for approx. $4 million USD, several times a day, regardless of the price
He already bought 2x $4mm today. Source: CC15Capital
Elon Musk continues to roll out his plans to transform X into a financial company within the next 12 months
Time will tell
The US job market is starting to crater...
With consensus expecting only a modest drop from the reported September 9.553 million job openings, what the BLS reported moments ago instead was a stunning collapse of 617K job openings to just 8.733 million, the lowest since March 2021. This was a 6-sigma miss to the consensus estimate of 9.3 million... Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
Is bitcoin the most resilient asset class of all time?
Despite an unprecedented number of setbacks (Collapse of FTX, a $2 trillion bear market, over 500 lawsuits and regulation cases, multiple crypto lender bankruptcies, Binance fined a record $4.3 billion by US regulators, increased calls for regulation around the globe, etc.), Bitcoin prices hit $43,000 for the first time since April 2022, up 180% since November 2022. Bitcoin is now up ~45% in 6 weeks since speculation of Bitcoin ETF approvals began. Over the last year Bitcoin has added a massive $470 BILLION of market cap. The entire crypto market has added $750 billion of market cap since November 2022. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
(Source: Bespoke) As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 total return is within 1.1% of its prior all-time high from 1/3/22
In addition to nearing its prior highs, the pattern of the S&P 500 looks a lot like a cup and handle which technicians consider to be a bullish formation. Source: J-C Gand
