The Total US Bond Market ETF now has a negative return over the last 7 years. $BND
Source: Charlie Bilello
As highlighted in a tweet by HolgerZ, the S&P 500 is running in tandem with the Fed net liquidity
So it's not so much the peak or pause in rate hikes that matters, but rather what happens to the Fed balance sheet & reverse repo operations. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Cash now earns more than the S&P 500 by the largest margin in 23 years
Source: TME, Bloomberg
HAVE YOU EVER HEARD ABOUT DE-EUROIZATION ?
Based on SWIFT international payments, we are witnessing 'de-euroization' and not 'dedollarization. The euro's share in SWIFT global payments has dropped to 23% from 38% at the start of the year. Are Russia's SPFS and China's CIPS eating up the euro? Meanwhile, China's share in SWIFT payments reached an all-time high of 3.47% in August. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Consumer balance sheets are getting stretched
Accumulating debt during a low interest rates environment is one thing. But in light of the continuous surge of the price of money, the US consumer is probably starting to feel the pain Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
The gap between oil and 10 year breakevens is huge...
Does it mean that the market sees higher oil prices as a "growth killer" and thus disinflationary at some stage? Source chart: TME, Refinitiv
GS Financial conditions index is tightening significantly, now at the tightest since November 2022...
This is probably what the FED wants to see...until something breaks... Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
The equal-weighted S&P just went red YTD...
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
