Eurozone headline inflation cools down: core inflation hits all-time-high
Eurozone headline inflation cools significantly to 6.9% YoY in March, down from 8.5% in February and lowest level since February 2022, AND lower than estimated 7.1% Bloomberg poll. But core inflation, which excludes volatile items, quickened to 5.7%, a fresh All-Time-High, showing inflation pressure remains high. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Germany's headline inflation eased significantly but less than expected
Germany's headline inflation eased significantly but less than expected AND underlying price pressure keeps rising. CPI dropped from 8.7% in Feb to 7.4% in March overshooting expectations of 7.3%. Core CPI rose from 5.7% to 5.9%, according to Commerzbank calculations. Source: HolgerZ
The US Treasury cash balance just reached another recent low
The latest government report is out, and the US Treasury cash balance just reached another recent low. Only $187 billion is left. Let's keep in mind that February's deficit alone cost $262 billion. Ultimately, this could mean that we are about to see another flood of Treasury issuances if/when the debt ceiling issue gets resolved. Will the natural supply/demand mismatch caused by this dynamic pressure yields higher and create further problems in the fixed-income market= Source: Boomberg, Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index rises to 1.575 - a level seen only four times during the last 30 years
In every case VIX hit at least 45. During the last two spikes, it hit 80. Source: Bloomberg, Oktay Kavrak, CFA
German Ifo business confidence shows economy's resilience against the recent banking crisis
German Ifo business confidence shows economy's resilience against the recent banking crisis, w/all 3 Ifo components rising in March. Data highlight that industry is holding up as the threat of an energy crunch recedes. BUT all 3 indexes remained a bit below long-term avg of 96.6. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
One of the best bank deals of our time?
First Citizens's shares jumped 54% after NCarolina lender took over SVB's $56.5bn in deposits as well as $72bn in loans at discount of $16.5bn. FDIC will help finance deal w/$35bn loan & $70bn credit line to help cover pot depo flight. Source: DJ, HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Used car prices increased again for the 5th month in a row
Prices continue to firm up at historical levels, despite being down about 2% on a year-over-year basis. Inflationary forces remain stubbornly high due to structural macro drivers. The Fed just erased 5 months of QT in two weeks. Will it add fuel to the inflation fire? Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg, Crescat Capital
Unemployment rate increased to 3.6%, above expectations
February US jobs data was mixed. US economy created 311k new jobs in February, above forecast of 225k but household numbers below forecasts with unemployment rate rises to 3.6% above 3.4% expected AND wages cool. Monthly wages rose 0.2% vs 0.3% expected.
