There is a new penny stock...
After a 17-month trading hiatus, Evergrande trading resumed only to quickly become a penny stock Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
Get ready for 0DTEs, Europe
Source: Markets Mayhem, Bloomberg
Magazine covers happen to be quite effective as contrarian indicators (i.e peak pessimism usually takes place at the bottom; peak optimsim at the top).
Could The Economist cover page on #china (Xi's failing model) coincide with a bottom for Chinese equities? China stocks surged on Monday after authorities announced a package of measures over the weekend to boost investor confidence, including halving the stamp duty on stock trading. China’s blue-chip CSI 300 Index jumped roughly 3% in early morning trade, on course for its best day since November, while the Hang Seng benchmark advanced more than 2%.
As Torsten Slok from Apollo posted this weekend, a US corporate default cycle has started the markets are not paying attention
Source: Vignesh Vijayakumar
25 Years of $LVMH Revenue Growth per Business Group
Visualized by Quartr
JACKSON HOLE: A RISK MANAGEMENT SPEECH
FACTS: The overall tone of Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was relatively hawkish but not as hawkish as some feared on the back of recent strong data. It was also less hawkish than last year. The main message is that The Fed is definitely on hold but leaning on a more hawkish stance should data don’t show more progress in inflation / growth cooling down. OUR TAKE: The big event is now behind us, and we didn’t learn anything new. Powell believes that monetary policy is tight, but he opens the door to an even tighter one. With regards to macro data, they are going into the right direction but there is a risk of further upside, i.e interest rates path remains very data dependent which means that markets will now turn its attention to PCE inflation and US jobs data (next week). The Fed is likely to stay nervous as long as they see evidence of a serious break in job growth below the 200K pace. We are not there yet, which means that in the coming weeks, we will likely see macro volatility leading to market volatility. Our view remains that central bankers want first and foremost to avoid the big mistake (rather than targeting a pre-defined target). In the previous decade, central bankers wanted to avoid the deflation trap, hence the over-printing. This time, they want to avoid the risk of another round of inflation. Hence the temptation of over-tightening. MARKET REACTION: Rate-hike expectations initially moved lower but then reverted higher after investors actually read and listened to his speech. 2Y yields are back to July highs and equity markets are whipsawing.
“I am so clever that sometimes I don't understand a single word of what I am saying.” — Oscar Wilde
Source: Philosophy Quotes
The U.S. has accumulated as much debt in the last 10 years as in the entire 100 years before that
From 1923 - 2013: $16 trillion , From 2013 - 2023: $16 trillion Source: FRED
