Maybe not the TACO everyone was expecting
S&P 500 futures are rallying following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump had told aides he was willing to end military hostilities in the Middle East even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut. The plan to reopen the strait would stretch the conflict far beyond his projected 4-6 week timeline so instead, he’s deferring to diplomacy or shifting the burden onto allies. The United States initiated a war that shut down a critical waterway responsible for 20% of global oil shipments—and is now preparing to exit without reopening it. Five weeks. More than 3,000 dead. $200 billion requested. Over 300 Americans wounded. Oil prices have surged past $100. The risk of a global recession is climbing. Asian countries are rationing fuel. Gulf allies are enduring nightly bombardments. And the strait that sparked the entire escalation remains under Iranian control...
A broker for Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, attempted to make a big investment in major defence companies in the weeks leading up to the US-Israeli attack on Ira
According to three people familiar with the matter. Hegseth’s broker at Morgan Stanley contacted BlackRock in February about making a multimillion-dollar investment in the asset manager’s Defense Industrials Active ETF, the people said, shortly before the US launched military action against Tehran. The inquiry on behalf of the high-profile potential client was flagged internally at BlackRock, according to the people familiar with the matter. Note however that if this is true, he would still have lost some money (-12.7% as shown on the chart below). Source: FT, Bloomberg, RBC
Trump just posted that France refused to let U.S. planes loaded with military supplies for Israel fly over French territory.
He said hashtag#France has been "VERY UNHELPFUL" with the Iran war. "The U.S.A. will REMEMBER!!!" NATO is having a moment... Source: Mario Nawfal Truth Social
Saudi oil export through Yanbu West Terminal are skyrocketing. The next target for Iran?
The Houthis’ involvement adds a second maritime pressure point in the Red Sea, with the ability to threaten Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu export hub and disrupt traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb. This puts ~5 mbd of Saudi bypass capacity at risk, potentially adding around $20/bbl to oil prices, writes JPM's Kaneva. Workarounds exist, but longer routes could extend Asia shipping times by up to 40 days and require 130+ additional tanker voyages. Source. JP Morgan, RBC, TME
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms - Polymarket
Democrat sweep = 50% odds Source: C.Barraud
China is pulling silver from global markets at the fastest pace in 8 years
China is rapidly absorbing global silver supply, with imports exceeding 790 tons in early 2026 and a record February. Demand is driven by retail investors seeking a cheaper alternative to gold and solar manufacturers accelerating purchases before tax changes. With the solar sector consuming about 20% of global supply and inventories falling, market tightness is intensifying. China’s dominant role in both demand and production is amplifying pressure on already constrained silver markets. Source: Global Markets Investor
50 countries rely on imported fossil fuels for more than HALF their energy.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global chokepoint: disruption would hit energy-dependent economies like Japan, South Korea, and Germany. Despite shifts after past crises, reliance on fossil fuels remains high and concentrated in volatile regions. The energy transition is progressing, but too slowly to mitigate immediate geopolitical and supply risks. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Ember
This month is proving painful for macro traders:
Brevan Howard Master Fund: -6% MTD (through March 20) Brevan Howard Alpha Strategies: -3.7% MTD (through March 20) Taula: -9.6% MTD (through March 20) Caxton Macro: -15% MTD (through March 20) Source; Bloomberg, Nishant Kumar
