The era of fiscal dominance
source: MacroAlf. Inflation-adjusted US fiscal deficits popping up at: - World War I - World War II - Great Financial Crisis - Covid - 2023 Find the outlier...
Inflation-adjusted US government spending since 2020 exceeds the combined spending of:
- World War I - World War II - 1970 to 1990 Source: Game of Trades
The US Treasury will hold some of its largest-ever debt auctions in the coming three months in an effort to fill the yawning federal budget deficit.
The Treasury said on Wednesday it would increase the size of auctions at most maturities for the next three months, with two-year and five-year auctions hitting record sizes. The five-year auction in April, for $70bn, would be the biggest ever for debt with a maturity of two years or more. The US has been increasing its borrowing over the past few quarters, as the gap between government spending and tax revenue has grown. The federal deficit stood at $1.7tn last year. Source: FT https://lnkd.in/eSyQHXu9
US government spending (inflation-adjusted) since 2020 has exceeded the combined spending of:
- World War I - World War II - 1970 to 1990 Is this sustainable?
Monetary policy is now easing globally - and will ease much more in 2024/25 - at a time when fiscal deficits are far above the global financial crisis levels
Source: BofA
Nice one by Lyn Alden -> Since the start of 2020, the United States has taken on $10.7 trillion in new public debt (i.e. accumulated deficits)
That's about $80k per household in four years. Have households received that much in deficit spending? Some did, but likely very few of them... Source: Lyn Alden
US budget deficits in the years to come
Source: Win Smart, CBO , Bloomberg
The Kobeissi Letter >>> In fiscal year 2023, the US ran a deficit of $1.7 trillion
If you add back the student loan forgiveness program adjustment, the deficit was actually $2 trillion. To put this in perspective, the annual US deficit is roughly equal to total individual income tax collected. It also means that the 2023 deficit is nearly 5 TIMES as large as corporate income taxes. The 2023 deficit as reported is ~25% larger than total Social Security outlays. Net interest was $659 billion and should soon pass the national defense budget. What's the long-term plan here?
