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2 Feb 2024

The US Treasury will hold some of its largest-ever debt auctions in the coming three months in an effort to fill the yawning federal budget deficit.

The Treasury said on Wednesday it would increase the size of auctions at most maturities for the next three months, with two-year and five-year auctions hitting record sizes. The five-year auction in April, for $70bn, would be the biggest ever for debt with a maturity of two years or more. The US has been increasing its borrowing over the past few quarters, as the gap between government spending and tax revenue has grown. The federal deficit stood at $1.7tn last year. Source: FT

31 Jan 2024

US government spending (inflation-adjusted) since 2020 has exceeded the combined spending of:

- World War I - World War II - 1970 to 1990 Is this sustainable?

13 Dec 2023

Monetary policy is now easing globally - and will ease much more in 2024/25 - at a time when fiscal deficits are far above the global financial crisis levels

Source: BofA

11 Dec 2023

Nice one by Lyn Alden -> Since the start of 2020, the United States has taken on $10.7 trillion in new public debt (i.e. accumulated deficits)

That's about $80k per household in four years. Have households received that much in deficit spending? Some did, but likely very few of them... Source: Lyn Alden

24 Nov 2023

US budget deficits in the years to come

Source: Win Smart, CBO , Bloomberg

24 Oct 2023

The Kobeissi Letter >>> In fiscal year 2023, the US ran a deficit of $1.7 trillion

If you add back the student loan forgiveness program adjustment, the deficit was actually $2 trillion. To put this in perspective, the annual US deficit is roughly equal to total individual income tax collected. It also means that the 2023 deficit is nearly 5 TIMES as large as corporate income taxes. The 2023 deficit as reported is ~25% larger than total Social Security outlays. Net interest was $659 billion and should soon pass the national defense budget. What's the long-term plan here?

20 Oct 2023

Italy budget deficit by Robin Brooks ->

Monthly data on Italy's fiscal balance are volatile, but the September 2023 budget deficit is the largest ever...

13 Oct 2023

The United States is on an unsustainable fiscal path warns the IMF which projects the U.S. deficit to be 'elevated and persistent

Source: barchart, CBO

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