Wall Street stalwart Jamie Dimon is concerned history may be repeating itself with the U.S. economy returning to the embedded stagflation it battled 50 years ago.
Speaking at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, JPMorgan CEO Dimon said now more so than ever the economy is resembling the 1970s, when both inflation and unemployment were high but economic growth was weak.
German economy has returned to growth.
German Composite PMI Index moved back to >50 growth threshold in Apr for 1st time in 10mths, driven by a buoyant services sector. At 50.5, up from 47.7 in March, it signaled a modest expansion rate in private-sector business activity. Service PMI recorded its strongest growth since Jun2023 (index at 53.3). The manufacturing PMI meanwhile remained in sub-50 contraction territory at 42.2. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The global economy is addict to easy-money policies.
While everyone is talking about boj hiking rates, we just experienced one of the largest weekly changes in the BoJ balance sheet assets in history. In USD terms, this move accounted for nearly $80 billion in one week... Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
US markets start to speculate if the next Fed move is up, not down - Bloomberg
Investors are beginning to war-game how the Federal Reserve can manage a us economy that just won’t land, with some even debating whether interest-rate hikes will be needed only weeks after a steady run of reductions appeared all but certain. Bets on lower rates coming soon were so prevalent a few weeks ago that Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly cautioned that policymakers were unlikely to be in position to cut as of March. Less than three weeks later, traders have not only removed March as a possibility but May also looks improbable, and even conviction about the June Fed meeting is wavering, swaps trading shows.
In the latest BofA fund managers survey
when asked for the path of the US economy this year, 2/3 of investors say "soft landing," 1/5 say "no landing," 1/10 say "hard landing" (again, guaranteeing a "hard landing")... Source. BofA
Donald Trump is pitching a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports.
That would shrink a $575bn trade pipeline to practically nothing, Bloomberg analysis shows. For China ’s economy and its slumping stockmarket — down >40% from its 2021 high — that’s bad news. Worse, Trump’s rhetoric may add pressure on Biden to take harsher measures in the run-up to election day Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
“Super Sick Monday"
16.1 million U.S. employees will be completely absent from work today following Super Bowl Sunday, according to this year’s research from UKG. In 2023, nearly 18.8 million employees said they planned on missing work on Super Bowl Monday. However, 6.4 million further employees plan to come to work late, another 11.2 million are unsure of whether they will come to work, and around 6.4 million will decide what to do on the day. The number jumps up for U.S. employees who plan to miss at least some work on Monday, reaching around 22.5 million employees – 14% of the U.S. workforce. The research also finds six million employees have not yet notified their employers and will call in sick on the day or simply ‘ghost’ their employer on Monday. source : The Harris Pol, UKG Workforce Institute
The two largest economies in Africa are under huge financial strain.
On Monday, Nigeria de facto devalued the naira by ~30% (after another ~30% devaluation in June). And Egypt is under pressure to devalue too, with the pound ~50% weaker in the black market. Source: Javier Blas Bloomberg
