Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

Show more
20 Feb 2024

US markets start to speculate if the next Fed move is up, not down - Bloomberg

Investors are beginning to war-game how the Federal Reserve can manage a us economy that just won’t land, with some even debating whether interest-rate hikes will be needed only weeks after a steady run of reductions appeared all but certain. Bets on lower rates coming soon were so prevalent a few weeks ago that Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly cautioned that policymakers were unlikely to be in position to cut as of March. Less than three weeks later, traders have not only removed March as a possibility but May also looks improbable, and even conviction about the June Fed meeting is wavering, swaps trading shows.

15 Feb 2024

In the latest BofA fund managers survey

when asked for the path of the US economy this year, 2/3 of investors say "soft landing," 1/5 say "no landing," 1/10 say "hard landing" (again, guaranteeing a "hard landing")... Source. BofA

13 Feb 2024

Donald Trump is pitching a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports.

That would shrink a $575bn trade pipeline to practically nothing, Bloomberg analysis shows. For China ’s economy and its slumping stockmarket — down >40% from its 2021 high — that’s bad news. Worse, Trump’s rhetoric may add pressure on Biden to take harsher measures in the run-up to election day Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

12 Feb 2024

“Super Sick Monday"

16.1 million U.S. employees will be completely absent from work today following Super Bowl Sunday, according to this year’s research from UKG. In 2023, nearly 18.8 million employees said they planned on missing work on Super Bowl Monday. However, 6.4 million further employees plan to come to work late, another 11.2 million are unsure of whether they will come to work, and around 6.4 million will decide what to do on the day. The number jumps up for U.S. employees who plan to miss at least some work on Monday, reaching around 22.5 million employees – 14% of the U.S. workforce. The research also finds six million employees have not yet notified their employers and will call in sick on the day or simply ‘ghost’ their employer on Monday. source : The Harris Pol, UKG Workforce Institute

1 Feb 2024

The two largest economies in Africa are under huge financial strain.

On Monday, Nigeria de facto devalued the naira by ~30% (after another ~30% devaluation in June). And Egypt is under pressure to devalue too, with the pound ~50% weaker in the black market. Source: Javier Blas Bloomberg

16 Jan 2024

44% of office loans carry outstanding loan balances higher than the property value and are at risk of default according to a paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research

Source: Barchart

15 Jan 2024

The Economy is not The Market

Source: Win Smart

4 Jan 2024

How the economy works... An over-simplistic but accurate chart

Source: Markets & Mayhem

1 2

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks