OOPS... stagflationary numbers out of US !!!
Real GDP expanded at a 1.6% rate in Q1, trailing all forecasts. Main growth engine – personal spending – rose at a slower-than-forecast 2.5% pace. BUT a closely watched measure of underlying inflation advanced at a greater-than-expected 3.7% clip... While "soft" macro data in the first 3 months of the year were "goldilocks" for markets (Growth surprising on the upside + disinflation), the effective Q1 print does not look as rosy... Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The last Atlanta Fed GDPnow was released on Wednesday -> 2.7% from 2.9%.
Street consensus is 2.5%. Q1 GDP will be published today
China’s economy in the first quarter grew faster than expected, official data released Tuesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed.
Gross domestic product in the January to March period grew 5.3% compared to a year ago, faster than the 4.6% growth expected by economists polled by Reuters, and compared to the 5.2% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, China’s GDP grew 1.6% in the first quarter, compared to a Reuters poll expectations of 1.4% and a revised fourth quarter expansion of 1.2%. Beijing has set a 2024 growth target of around 5%. https://lnkd.in/eNZgs7zp Source: CNBC
France's 2023 Deficit 'Significantly' Above 4.9%' (BBG)
France's budget (in)discipline... Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, France managed to keep its budget deficit below the 3% threshold (remember the Maastricht Treaty) just once (2018). This is far worse than Italy. France's debt-to-GDP ratio is at 110%, up from 64% pre-financial crisis. With potential GDP growth at a paltry 1% and declining, structurally low interest rates is needed to keep the debt burden afloat. Source: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg
Artificial Intelligence is projected to increase the GDP by 130% according to Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management
This is significantly higher than all major advances in technology including the Steam Engine and the Internet. Source: Barchart, Ark Invest
Do you remember the dramatic loosing of Financial conditions at the end of 2023?
The lagged effect of this massive loosening is now hitting and is supporting the US economy (and this NOT doing The Fed's job...). Indeed, US economic surprises keep surprising on the upside. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent (!!!) on February 1, up from 3.0 percent on January 26
No wonder the US is polarized...
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Gross domestic product data showed the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter
That’s much higher than the 2% expectation from economists polled by Dow Jones, underscoring continued economic resiliency despite interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The result, for better or worse, speak for themselves: while Q4 GDP rose by $329 billion to $27.939 trillion, a respectable if made up number, what is much more disturbing is that over the same time period, the US budget deficit rose by more than 50%, or $510 billion. And the cherry on top: the increase in public US debt in the same three month period was a stunning $834 billion, or 154% more than the increase in GDP. In other words, it now takes $1.55 in budget deficit to generate $1 of growth... and it takes over $2.50 in new debt to generate $1 of GDP growth! Source; www.zerohedge.com
