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15 Dec 2023

Unemployment rate in America from 1955-2023

Interesting how the unemployment rate tends to spike right after the Fed cuts rates. Suggesting that Fed policy easing is usually a negative signal for the economy. Not a positive one. Source: FRED, re:venture

1 Dec 2023

The German labor market is now sending out alarm signals despite the shortage of skilled workers

Germany’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5.9% in November, the highest level in 2.5 years. Joblessness increased by 22k. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

16 Nov 2023

US Continuing Jobless Claims Surges To 2 Year High

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week jumped to 231k (from an upwardly revised 218k), up to its highest since August...Worse still, continuing claims keeps rising, to 1.864mm - the highest since November 2021... Source: Bloomberg,

7 Nov 2023

NY FED recession probability is on highs

Unemployment is going up. Similar pattern was right before most previous recessions. Source: Wall Street Silver

2 Oct 2023

The US is running 10% deficit with record low unemployment

Imagine the deficit in next recession, whenever it may come. Enjoy these positive real rates as long as they last. Source: Michel A.Arouet, Bloomberg

22 Sep 2023

In case you missed it...

US Jobless Claims Fall to 201,000, Lowest Level Since January...There haven't been many times in the last 50+ years that #us initial jobless claims have been lower. Source: Bespoke

14 Aug 2023

Ominous sign of weakness in Chinese economy: China is suffering Italian style youth unemployment despite Chinese women retiring in early fifties

Source: Francois Trahan thru Michel ArouetT

17 Jul 2023

In China, the unemployment rate among young people ages 16 to 24 was 21.3% in June

A new record.


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