How is it possible? Below is the number of initial filings for unemployment insurance.
Five of the last six weeks, the exact same number. Effectively the same number in the last 11 weeks, except for the holiday weeks (President's Day and Easter). As highlighted by Jim Bianco, how is this statistically possible? --- Consider The US is a $28 trillion economy. It has 160 million workers. Initial claims for unemployment insurance are state programs, with 50 state rules, hundreds of offices, and 50 websites to file. Weather, seasonality, holidays, and economic vibrations drive the number of people filing claims from week to week. Yet this measure is so stable that it does not vary by even 1,000 applications a week. Just the number of applications incorrectly filed out every week should cause it to vary more than this...
Unemployment rate in America from 1955-2023
Interesting how the unemployment rate tends to spike right after the Fed cuts rates. Suggesting that Fed policy easing is usually a negative signal for the economy. Not a positive one. Source: FRED, re:venture
The German labor market is now sending out alarm signals despite the shortage of skilled workers
Germany’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5.9% in November, the highest level in 2.5 years. Joblessness increased by 22k. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
US Continuing Jobless Claims Surges To 2 Year High
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week jumped to 231k (from an upwardly revised 218k), up to its highest since August...Worse still, continuing claims keeps rising, to 1.864mm - the highest since November 2021... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
NY FED recession probability is on highs
Unemployment is going up. Similar pattern was right before most previous recessions. Source: Wall Street Silver
The US is running 10% deficit with record low unemployment
Imagine the deficit in next recession, whenever it may come. Enjoy these positive real rates as long as they last. Source: Michel A.Arouet, Bloomberg
In case you missed it...
US Jobless Claims Fall to 201,000, Lowest Level Since January...There haven't been many times in the last 50+ years that #us initial jobless claims have been lower. Source: Bespoke
Ominous sign of weakness in Chinese economy: China is suffering Italian style youth unemployment despite Chinese women retiring in early fifties
Source: Francois Trahan thru Michel ArouetT
