Current SP500 vs. election seasonality
by Win Smart, CFA
Do people appreciate how speculative "Small Cap Growth" has become?
The Russell 2000 Growth has 28% in negative earners. Prior to the GFC, negative earners were 15-18% of the index. Even in a depression (2009), it only went up to 26%. How many will "grow" into bankruptcy court? Source: Jeff Weniger
Global equity risk premium are now at the lowest since 2008.
Source: Mike Zaccardi
China's trade surplus in the first 2 months of 2024 is the biggest EVER.
Here's China's dilemma. It's caught in a deflationary debt spiral. Exports are a way out. But - at the same time - China's relations with the "developed" world are deteriorating. Source chart: Robin Brooks
Price of a home in the us (median price) vs. bitcoin over time
Source: coinsauce
The AI data center value chain
Source: Evan
The S&P 500 Energy ETF $XLE just formed a Golden Cross right as it hit a 1-year high
Source: Barchart
Indian bonds are set to be added to global indexes. Here’s why it could be a gamechanger - CNBC
- The decision to include Indian government bonds in two prominent global indexes recently is being viewed as a shot in the arm for the rapidly growing country and is expected to bring in billions of inflows. - India’s bonds will be added to the JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) in June, the Wall Street lender announced in September. - Goldman Sachs said it expects India’s bond markets to see inflows “upwards of $40 billion from the time of announcement to the end of the scale-in period, or around $2 billion per month.” - The biggest buyers of India’s government debt have so far been institutional organizations such as banks, mutual funds and insurance firms but addition to global indexes means it could now diversify the country’s avenues to raise funds. https://lnkd.in/d7hwmgZH Source: CNBC
