The S&P 493 – that’s the S&P 500 excl “Magnificent 7” – is expected to deliver just 2-3% net income growth in Q2, Q3, and Q4.
That’s slower than inflation, meaning most of the market is barely growing in real terms. Measured against this, US equities are quite expensive! Source: Strategas thru HolgerZ
Update on the short squeeze...
The 100 most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 3,000 are now up 66.5% since the 4/8 low versus 29% for all stocks and 14% for the 100 least shorted. Source: Bespoke
US companies announced share repurchases totaling $166 billion last month, the highest dollar value on record for July ...
For the year, announced buybacks stand at $926 billion, which is $108 billion ahead of the previous year-to-date record set in 2022. Source: Bloomberg, Birinyi Associates, RBC
An interesting view on europe by Gavekal
"The 15% tariff rate on US imports from the European Union will hit the old continent's exporting sector. But the broader economy can count on its domestic segment to mitigate the shock. Notably, the effect of the ECB’s interest rate cuts is becoming visible in a bank lending recovery across the eurozone". Source: Gavekal, Macrobond
Buffett explains how growth impacts valuation
Source: Brian Feroldi
"When to sell" by Peter Lynch
Source: Invest In Assets 📈 @InvestInAssets on X
US earnings season update: so far so good...
Companies are beating, EPS growth is more than double so far vs expectations.. but beats are barely getting paid, while misses are getting pounded a little worse. Source: Goldman Sachs, RBC
Markets have fully priced three Fed rate cuts by the January meeting. That's a cut at three of the next four FOMC meetings.
Source: David Ingles @DavidInglesTV, Bloomberg
