'It is a misconception that commodities fall in a recession - on average they rally through one.'
Source: Bloomberg
China commodity stockpiles
Source: Robert Friedland on X, The Economist
🚨 GOLD HITS $2,453 - A NEW ALL TIME HIGH 🔥
🔉 Just as Powell signals rates cuts before inflation comes down to 2%... Source: Bloomberg
Copper's $5 level reminds of the gold's critical $2,000 mark
nce gold breached that resistance, it kept moving with authority. Are we setting the stage for a similar move in copper? Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
1.285 million barrels of oil were added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week, the largest addition since June 2020
Source: Barchart
Electricity consumption has skyrocketed, and this is just the beginning.
As highlighted by Otavio (Tavi) Costa, the surge in electric cars, electric heating, and new AI advancements is dramatically increasing our electricity needs. Among the questions raised? 1) Is the global economy prepared for these changes? 2) Could AI be inflationary in the short run and deflationary in the long run? The extensive infrastructure necessary to harness AI requires hardware expansion, while commodities (particularly metals) remain historically constrained. Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
Which commodities protect against different inflation shocks? Goldman regards GOLD as a decent hedge
Source: Goldman Sachs, Ronnie Stoeferle
In case you missed it...
Europe’s gas imports from russia overtook supplies from the US for the first time in almost two years in May, despite the region’s efforts to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels since the full scale invasion of Ukraine. While one-off factors drove the reversal, it highlights the difficulty of further reducing Europe’s dependence on gas from Russia, with several eastern European countries still relying on imports from their neighbour. The US overtook Russia as a supplier of gas to Europe in September 2022, and has since 2023 accounted for about a fifth of the region’s supply. But last month, Russian-piped gas and LNG shipments accounted for 15 per cent of total supply to the EU, UK, Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, according to data from ICIS. LNG from the US made up 14 per cent of supply to the region, its lowest level since August 2022, the ICIS data showed. Link to Article >>> https://lnkd.in/eJJjKBFi Source: FT
