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9 Feb 2024

Here's the current expectation on Wall Street regarding the actions of the US Federal Reserve in 2024.

source : wsj, ntimiraos

5 Feb 2024

One reason the Fed is a bit nervous and signalling and end to their hiking cycle?

Real Fed Funds rates are the highest in over 20 years... Source: Markets & Mayhem, BofA

2 Feb 2024

The Fed's balance sheet is now at its lowest level since March 2021, down $1.3 trillion from its peak in April 2022.

How much more QT is needed to unwind the massive QE from March 2020- April 2022? $3.5 trillion. Source: Charlie Bilello

2 Feb 2024

The Fed said that a March rate cut is "unlikely," yet futures are still pricing in a 39% chance it happens

Even as the Fed said they cannot cut rates until inflation is comfortably moving to 2%, markets still see 6 cuts in 2024. There's even a growing 23% chance of 7 interest rate cuts this year. Markets are pricing in a rate cut at EVERY remaining Fed meeting this year. As highlighted by the Kobeissi Letter, if the Fed is on track for a "soft landing," why do we need to many rate cuts? Source: The Kobeissi Lette

1 Feb 2024

Powell “stayed away from addressing the banking sector but the sharp decline in regional shares is certainly getting attention at the Fed.”

Could the combo "March cut is fully priced out + regional bank stress building" trigger a temporary spike of the VIX? Source: Carl Quintanilla

31 Jan 2024

As we are less than 24 hours away from the first Fed meeting of 2024, odds of rate cuts are pulling back

Odds of a rate cut this week are down to 2% and odds of a rate cut in March are down to ~40%. This is the lowest probability of a March rate cut since November 2023. Still, futures are pricing-in a base case of 6 rate cuts for a total of 150 bps in 2024. - All eyes will be on Fed guidance on June 30zh Source: The Kobeissi Letter

30 Jan 2024

US Bankruptcy filings keep moving higher

This sounds like a logical consequence of 2 years of aggressive FED tightening but still something to keep an eye on Source: Win Smart, CFA

30 Jan 2024

The Fed did almost no QT in the last 3 weeks

As highlighted by Tavi Costa, this was the smallest change in their balance sheet since the regional bank crisis in March 2023. Source: Bloomberg, Crescat Capital

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