Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

Show more
30 Jan 2024

Equity futures spiked while bond yields dropped yesterday after the close after US Treasury unexpectedly slashed borrowing estimates:

- For Q1, US Treasury now expects to borrow "only" $760 billion in debt, which is $55 billion lower than what it expected in October 2023, and is about $30BN below wall street estimates. The difference the Treasury explained is "largely due to projections of higher net fiscal flows and a higher beginning of quarter cash balance." In other words, Treasury expects higher taxes to more than make up the $55BN difference from the previous estimate. - For Q2, the Treasury now expects to borrow only $202 billion in debt. While there was no previous Treasury forecast for this period, Wall Street expected a number somewhere in the $500BN vicinity, so clearly this is far lower than preciously expected. Source: Bloomberg, Chris Middleton, Lawrence McDonald,

5 Jan 2024

US interest rate futures are beginning to shift back in the less dovish direction

Odds of 7 or 8 interest rate cuts in 2024 have halved this week. Also, odds of rate cuts beginning this month are down to just 7%. However, the base case still shows 6 rate cuts for a total of 150 basis points in 2024. This is double the 3 rate cuts forecasted at the Fed's latest meeting. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

14 Dec 2023

Interest rate futures shift to showing a ~57% chance of rate CUTS beginning in March 2024

Markets also see a growing 9% chance of rate cuts beginning as soon as next month. Futures are projecting a total of FIVE rate cuts in 2024. There's a 28% chance of 6 cuts and an 11% chance of 7 cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the Fed just said they see just 3 rate cuts in 2024. So markets are still "fighting" the Fed. But the Fed is starting to adjust... Source: The Kobeissi Letter

20 Nov 2023

Copper hits widest contango in AT LEAST 29 years

Source: Barchart, Bloomberg

15 Nov 2023

JUST IN: Futures now show a 0% chance of additional rate hikes with rate cuts beginning in May 2024

Prior to today's CPI report, there was a 30% chance of at least one more rate hike ahead. Rate cuts were expected to begin in June 2024. Now, markets are pricing-in at least 4 rate CUTS in 2024. Markets are betting that the Fed is done. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

1 Nov 2023

Orange juice hit another all-time high this week

Source: Tradingview

27 Oct 2023

Uranium narrative has made headlines again...Prices are now back above the levels seen before the Fukushima incident in March 2011...

Source: Game of trades

12 Sep 2023

Steack-flation...Cattle Futures have once again closed at an all-time high. Steaks are going to be getting expensive!

Source: Barchart

1 2

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks